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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 15 Mar 2020

      Here's a quick very crude graph I made to show you how problematic models are X-axis is days, y-axis is number of cases. Different lines represent different doubling rates for COVID-19 cases in Australiapic.twitter.com/KCXMt7a7bV

      2 replies 4 retweets 16 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 15 Mar 2020

      The point here is NOT that any of these are correct It's that SMALL changes in the model can have BIG impacts

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 15 Mar 2020

      For example, if we halve the doubling rate (from 4 to 8 days) it doesn't just halve the number of cases - we go from >40,000 cases by Easter to less than 1/10th of that number!pic.twitter.com/oNuYrKSJbF

      1 reply 3 retweets 6 likes
      Show this thread
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 15 Mar 2020

      Models are only as good as your assumptions, and since we don't know much that is concrete about #COVID19, it's worth being cautious about interpreting any predictions at the moment

      5:47 PM - 15 Mar 2020
      • 4 Retweets
      • 20 Likes
      • Mikael ethoonnu Dr Lea Merone MBChB (hons) MPH&TM MSc FAFPHM Ⓥ Jim Gruman📚🚵‍♂️⚙ Ben McNeil Katherine Arden PhD Kerry B (she/her) Denise Lee-vaccination=freedom Beth Skwarecki
      2 replies 4 retweets 20 likes
        1. GrantD‏ @Graetz77GD 15 Mar 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          T/strongest argument I have seen so far. Proper modelling requires both an appreciation of statistics, t/assumptions being used & t/rates of velocity obtained.That’s why most models heavily discount t/impacts of small bases /samples. Here h/e both MSM &SOCM seem 2be ignoring this

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        2. Carb⌬n Based Eukary⌬te  🐝‏ @carbonbaby 15 Mar 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          My concern. Say we successfully cut the doubling rate in half through social distancing. The worst is avoided, hospitals aren’t over run, and with proper treatment, the mortality isn’t terrible. Next time, will people think we over reacted?

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 15 Mar 2020
          Replying to @carbonbaby

          They they think we are overreacting than we don't react enough

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation

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