Here's a quick very crude graph I made to show you how problematic models are X-axis is days, y-axis is number of cases. Different lines represent different doubling rates for COVID-19 cases in Australiapic.twitter.com/KCXMt7a7bV
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T/strongest argument I have seen so far. Proper modelling requires both an appreciation of statistics, t/assumptions being used & t/rates of velocity obtained.That’s why most models heavily discount t/impacts of small bases /samples. Here h/e both MSM &SOCM seem 2be ignoring this
My concern. Say we successfully cut the doubling rate in half through social distancing. The worst is avoided, hospitals aren’t over run, and with proper treatment, the mortality isn’t terrible. Next time, will people think we over reacted?
They they think we are overreacting than we don't react enough
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