The point here is NOT that any of these are correct It's that SMALL changes in the model can have BIG impacts
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For example, if we halve the doubling rate (from 4 to 8 days) it doesn't just halve the number of cases - we go from >40,000 cases by Easter to less than 1/10th of that number!pic.twitter.com/oNuYrKSJbF
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Models are only as good as your assumptions, and since we don't know much that is concrete about
#COVID19, it's worth being cautious about interpreting any predictions at the momentShow this thread
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The problem is graphs basically identical to this are being earnestly created and shared as “facts and information about flattening the curve!1!1!!1” The prevailing “modelling” narrative has so far been won by people who know just enough Excel to be dangerous.
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