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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Mar 2020

      For example, the R0 of #COVID19 is 2.5-3 However, the R of the disease was brought down in some places to just 0.3, meaning each 3 infected people passed on the disease to only 1 more person

      2 replies 3 retweets 14 likes
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    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Mar 2020

      So what does this have to do with herd immunity? It's pretty simple. If the R of a disease is above 1, the disease will keep spreading

      1 reply 2 retweets 14 likes
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    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Mar 2020

      One way you can bring it down is with vaccines Another is by having everyone get the disease

      1 reply 3 retweets 12 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Mar 2020

      So, we know that if R drops below 1, the disease stops spreading Therefore, we want to know what proportion of the people in the population need to be immune to the disease for R<1 This is the herd immunity threshold

      1 reply 3 retweets 14 likes
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    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Mar 2020

      The formula is pretty easy: R0×%immune<1 Therefore, 1/R0 = herd immunity threshold

      1 reply 3 retweets 12 likes
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    6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Mar 2020

      For #COVID19, R0=~2.5 Therefore, 1/2.5 = the % of people who need to be immune for the disease to be contained In this case, that's 0.4, or 40%

      1 reply 4 retweets 18 likes
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    7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Mar 2020

      I.e. if 40% of people get #COVID19, the disease will probably stop depressing by itself (as long add it confers lasting immunity)

      2 replies 4 retweets 21 likes
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    8. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Mar 2020

      Similarly, if enough people self-isolate, or if social distancing reduces the effective reproduction rate low enough, the disease may stop spreading However, this is not herd immunity

      1 reply 6 retweets 33 likes
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    9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Mar 2020

      Apologies, mistake in the number above It is 1-40%, or 60% who need to be immune for herd immunity given this R0!

      1 reply 1 retweet 23 likes
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    10. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Mar 2020

      (This is why you shouldn't tweet and play Borderlands 3)

      2 replies 0 retweets 21 likes
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      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Mar 2020

      Also, good to note that herd immunity requires a LOT of people to get infected If 60% of the population gets sick, and 1% of the cases die, that's 0.6% of THE ENTIRE POPULATION dead In the UK, that's millions of people

      9:30 PM - 14 Mar 2020
      • 16 Retweets
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      • JUSTYNA Breanna Beers isabelle 💙 🇫🇷 🇪🇺woke Mary Webberley Random Ray Shillito You know me 🥑 Flāming ☄həllscape w a Cat 😻 🏳️‍🌈🏴‍☠️ sirana
      7 replies 16 retweets 41 likes
        1. Dr KayRay‏ @ktibus 14 Mar 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          I would love to hear any of the people proposing it as a strategy to outline their proposal of how they will achieve herd immunity (Rhetorical question because I know anyone suggesting it actually doesn't know what they are talking about).

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. ɪᴀɴ ᴍ. ᴍᴀᴄᴋᴀʏ, ᴘʜᴅ  🦠 🤧 🧬 🥼 🦟 🧻 🧙‍♂️‏Verified account @MackayIM 14 Mar 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          And still doesn't account for all the severe illness that will collapse our hospitals, and in turn cause more death due to a normal but now uncared for level of disease burden, if #COVID19 not slowed.

          0 replies 4 retweets 20 likes
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        1. New conversation
        2. THENOTORIUSBORIS‏ @borisdabasher 14 Mar 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          Isn’t 0.6% of the UK population around 400,000 people? (Assuming overall pop. around 66-67 million? Still very serious numbers, but not in the millions. Or did you mean millions would get infected?

          1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Mar 2020
          Replying to @borisdabasher

          Yes actually that's correct

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. ethoonnu‏ @wereswil2live 15 Mar 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          @threadreaderapp unroll

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Thread Reader App‏ @threadreaderapp 15 Mar 2020
          Replying to @wereswil2live

          Hallo, please find the unroll here: Thread by @GidMK: Ok, so let's talk HERD IMMUNITY This is an epidemiological concept that describes what happens when… https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1239035823745449984.html …. Have a good day. 🤖

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. The Sleeper‏ @TheSleeper2020 15 Mar 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          Devils advocate: given the exponential growth of the population and the impact this is having on the planets finite resources, is 0.6% of the world no longer being alive a negative thing when the deaths are limited to those classed as vulnerable with underlying health conditions?

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        1. Ross Grayson, MPH, CIH‏ @EcoLogicalNet 15 Mar 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          @threadreaderapp unroll

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Daniel Witte‏ @DanielRWitte 15 Mar 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          Also, the 60% would need to be very evenly distributed in the population. Otherwise some people end up 100% surrounded by ‘immune’ people and others 0%. An even spread is achieved with vaccination; it is unlikely for COVID19 which spreads in clusters, so you’d need ~90%

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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