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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Mar 2020

      Health Nerd Retweeted Asher Wolf

      Ok, so let's talk HERD IMMUNITY This is an epidemiological concept that describes what happens when enough people are immune to a disease that it can't spread 🧵https://twitter.com/Asher_Wolf/status/1238968686205009920 …

      Health Nerd added,

      Asher WolfVerified account @Asher_Wolf
      Someone pls explain herd immunity to twitter & why intentionally infecting yourself (or your kids) with coronavirus is a bad idea. Seeing a lot of tweets going around expressing the idea maybe it’s better not to close schools because then children “won’t get immunity.” Bad ideas
      7 replies 78 retweets 154 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Mar 2020

      There are two essential concepts to think about with herd immunity: The BASIC reproduction rate: R0 The EFFECTIVE reproduction rate: R

      1 reply 5 retweets 13 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Mar 2020

      R0 describes the number of people that each infected individual will pass the disease on to when they get sick in a completely vulnerable population For #COVID19 this number is currently estimated to be ~2.5-3t

      1 reply 3 retweets 15 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Mar 2020

      R, on the other hand, describes the number of people that each infected individual will go on to infect given a range of different scenarios

      1 reply 3 retweets 11 likes
      Show this thread
    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Mar 2020

      For example, the R0 of #COVID19 is 2.5-3 However, the R of the disease was brought down in some places to just 0.3, meaning each 3 infected people passed on the disease to only 1 more person

      2 replies 3 retweets 14 likes
      Show this thread
    6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Mar 2020

      So what does this have to do with herd immunity? It's pretty simple. If the R of a disease is above 1, the disease will keep spreading

      1 reply 2 retweets 14 likes
      Show this thread
    7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Mar 2020

      One way you can bring it down is with vaccines Another is by having everyone get the disease

      1 reply 3 retweets 12 likes
      Show this thread
    8. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Mar 2020

      So, we know that if R drops below 1, the disease stops spreading Therefore, we want to know what proportion of the people in the population need to be immune to the disease for R<1 This is the herd immunity threshold

      1 reply 3 retweets 14 likes
      Show this thread
    9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Mar 2020

      The formula is pretty easy: R0×%immune<1 Therefore, 1/R0 = herd immunity threshold

      1 reply 3 retweets 12 likes
      Show this thread
    10. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Mar 2020

      For #COVID19, R0=~2.5 Therefore, 1/2.5 = the % of people who need to be immune for the disease to be contained In this case, that's 0.4, or 40%

      1 reply 4 retweets 18 likes
      Show this thread
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Mar 2020

      I.e. if 40% of people get #COVID19, the disease will probably stop depressing by itself (as long add it confers lasting immunity)

      8:53 PM - 14 Mar 2020
      2 replies 4 retweets 21 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Mar 2020

          Similarly, if enough people self-isolate, or if social distancing reduces the effective reproduction rate low enough, the disease may stop spreading However, this is not herd immunity

          1 reply 6 retweets 33 likes
          Show this thread
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Mar 2020

          Apologies, mistake in the number above It is 1-40%, or 60% who need to be immune for herd immunity given this R0!

          1 reply 1 retweet 23 likes
          Show this thread
        4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Mar 2020

          (This is why you shouldn't tweet and play Borderlands 3)

          2 replies 0 retweets 21 likes
          Show this thread
        5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Mar 2020

          Also, good to note that herd immunity requires a LOT of people to get infected If 60% of the population gets sick, and 1% of the cases die, that's 0.6% of THE ENTIRE POPULATION dead In the UK, that's millions of people

          7 replies 16 retweets 41 likes
          Show this thread
        6. End of conversation
        1. smchatter‏ @smchatter1 14 Mar 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          It's not the total that matters as much as limiting the rate of spread to limit the number of concurrent infections. Otherwise the hospitals will be overwhelmed and more people will fdie from treatment capacity limits.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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