Ok, so let's talk HERD IMMUNITY
This is an epidemiological concept that describes what happens when enough people are immune to a disease that it can't spread
https://twitter.com/Asher_Wolf/status/1238968686205009920 …
-
-
So what does this have to do with herd immunity? It's pretty simple. If the R of a disease is above 1, the disease will keep spreading
Show this thread -
One way you can bring it down is with vaccines Another is by having everyone get the disease
Show this thread -
So, we know that if R drops below 1, the disease stops spreading Therefore, we want to know what proportion of the people in the population need to be immune to the disease for R<1 This is the herd immunity threshold
Show this thread -
The formula is pretty easy: R0×%immune<1 Therefore, 1/R0 = herd immunity threshold
Show this thread -
For
#COVID19, R0=~2.5 Therefore, 1/2.5 = the % of people who need to be immune for the disease to be contained In this case, that's 0.4, or 40%Show this thread -
I.e. if 40% of people get
#COVID19, the disease will probably stop depressing by itself (as long add it confers lasting immunity)Show this thread -
Similarly, if enough people self-isolate, or if social distancing reduces the effective reproduction rate low enough, the disease may stop spreading However, this is not herd immunity
Show this thread -
Apologies, mistake in the number above It is 1-40%, or 60% who need to be immune for herd immunity given this R0!
Show this thread -
(This is why you shouldn't tweet and play Borderlands 3)
Show this thread -
Also, good to note that herd immunity requires a LOT of people to get infected If 60% of the population gets sick, and 1% of the cases die, that's 0.6% of THE ENTIRE POPULATION dead In the UK, that's millions of people
Show this thread
End of conversation
New conversation -
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.