For example here are two models of the number of cases in Australia The only difference? Assuming a 4-day doubling rate vs a 6-day rate And yet, the divergence is vastpic.twitter.com/Cffqdb3hkr
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For example here are two models of the number of cases in Australia The only difference? Assuming a 4-day doubling rate vs a 6-day rate And yet, the divergence is vastpic.twitter.com/Cffqdb3hkr
Now, that's a terrible model that I quickly slapped together in Excel/Stata, but you get the idea Changing something a tiny bit on one variable can have big impacts on your end result That's why modelling is so hard
The really good modelers will present dozens or hundreds of options because it's all about the assumptions that you base each model on
As pointed out, there's a typo in the tweet, the chart shows a doubling rate of 4 vs 5 days not 6https://twitter.com/Freep01/status/1238288961325412352?s=20 …
Nod to Edward Lorenz #chaos.
With greater testing and vast majority of cases mild, case fatality rate likely to plummet.
People have been terrible at avoiding groups. Vectors will break when herd immunity grows.
#Science #statistics
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