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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 12 Mar 2020

    If you're scared about coronavirus modelling, it's worth remembering that ASSUMPTIONS ARE EVERYTHING Tiny changes make a HUGE difference

    7:12 PM - 12 Mar 2020
    • 7 Retweets
    • 35 Likes
    • Jen Carmina Lauren White Unni Gopinathan Kathy Vassilakos MK is on AO3 Hilary Gilary Matt Rogers Alicia Nevriana
    2 replies 7 retweets 35 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 12 Mar 2020

        For example here are two models of the number of cases in Australia The only difference? Assuming a 4-day doubling rate vs a 6-day rate And yet, the divergence is vastpic.twitter.com/Cffqdb3hkr

        2 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
        Show this thread
      3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 12 Mar 2020

        Now, that's a terrible model that I quickly slapped together in Excel/Stata, but you get the idea Changing something a tiny bit on one variable can have big impacts on your end result That's why modelling is so hard

        1 reply 1 retweet 5 likes
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      4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 12 Mar 2020

        The really good modelers will present dozens or hundreds of options because it's all about the assumptions that you base each model on

        3 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
        Show this thread
      5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 12 Mar 2020

        Health Nerd Retweeted Alexander Leverkhun

        As pointed out, there's a typo in the tweet, the chart shows a doubling rate of 4 vs 5 days not 6https://twitter.com/Freep01/status/1238288961325412352?s=20 …

        Health Nerd added,

        Alexander Leverkhun @Freep01
        Replying to @GidMK
        Just out of curiosity, what is your name? Btw you wrote 6 days but the chart graph is 5 days
        0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
        Show this thread
      6. End of conversation
      1. Ben Locwin‏ @BenLocwin 13 Mar 2020
        Replying to @GidMK

        Nod to Edward Lorenz #chaos. With greater testing and vast majority of cases mild, case fatality rate likely to plummet. People have been terrible at avoiding groups. Vectors will break when herd immunity grows. #Science #statistics

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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