This is such a key article Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now - Tomas Pueyo - Mediumhttps://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca …
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Replying to @SusanMitchell_ @ohanloncmr
Susan, it's riddled with same errors
@GidMK myself & others have cautioned against3 replies 2 retweets 8 likes -
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I made it as basic as I could. Doctors are not epidemiologists alas. It's complex
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Replying to @drg1985 @ohanloncmr
I reckon a good simple explanation is that models are all about assumptions. Tweak your assumptions just a tiny bit, and the outlook completely changes Thing is, in this outbreak, we know very little! Assumptions are, by their nature, probably wrong
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Guessing with added computer.
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Actually a great way to put it. The numbers seem real but they're often a reflection of the thoughts of the person doing the modelling
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We know so little yet about transmission there must be a lot of educated guesses extrapolated from other evidence going into every model.
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The good modelers are the ones making dozens or hundreds of models looking at different scenarios
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