Best evidence from numerous studies is that undiagnosed rate of #COVID19 is 50-80%
That means we expect/have found that the 'true' number of cases is ~2-5x the 'confirmed' rate
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Whereas this article takes some very questionable assumptions, such as transitory death rates, to assume much higher numbers of cases than are reasonably plausible
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Remember the old adage "All models are wrong; some models are useful" I'm not sure that these models are useful, unfortunately
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We came to a similar conclusion, but there is a lot of interesting material here. We are running our own SIR models for spread, hospital admission, ICU admission, and deaths. The math gets complex, but we are calibrating to multiple countries to give us a range of outcomes.
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I think it's an interesting read, but the problem is the certainty. His assumptions appear to be extremely unlikely imo, and that's really not represented well in the piece
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Chinese doctors have reported someone getting the virus after sitting 4.5 meters away from infected fellow bus rider. Another caught it after boarding the bus 30 minutes after infected rider left. Dr. John Campbell reports on what he read in a translation.https://youtu.be/FZV9z0RVhy4
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I’ve shared largely because of the layman take home messages- which indeed i screenshot and circled. Social distancing early can lower the curve and save lives..... for that main reason I like this article
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But then I’ve had recent discussions with people in the uk who are ill and didn’t see the point in self isolating. So I sent them this to emphasise- social distance Especially if you’re unwell!
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Don’t disagree as lots of uncertainty - but planning for a worse outcome is preferable to underestimating and seeing continued high rates of spreading. Europe at the moment is a good example.
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