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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 11 Mar 2020

    This article by a tech guy from Silicon Valley is going pretty viral While I agree that social distancing is a great idea, I find the models EXTREMELY suspect and almost certainly wrong #COVID19 #coronavirushttps://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca …

    2:30 PM - 11 Mar 2020
    • 11 Retweets
    • 35 Likes
    • alfhvatne Esraa Aldalooj Snowy Abdulrahman Aldakhil މުޙައްމަދު އަޝުރަފު Mohamed Ashraf 💧 Ian "Department of Diseasology" 🍩 Musgrave Otto Kalliokoski Peter Lindberg onisillos sekkides
    5 replies 11 retweets 35 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 11 Mar 2020

        Best evidence from numerous studies is that undiagnosed rate of #COVID19 is 50-80% That means we expect/have found that the 'true' number of cases is ~2-5x the 'confirmed' rate

        1 reply 4 retweets 8 likes
        Show this thread
      3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 11 Mar 2020

        Whereas this article takes some very questionable assumptions, such as transitory death rates, to assume much higher numbers of cases than are reasonably plausible

        1 reply 1 retweet 5 likes
        Show this thread
      4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 11 Mar 2020

        Remember the old adage "All models are wrong; some models are useful" I'm not sure that these models are useful, unfortunately

        1 reply 1 retweet 21 likes
        Show this thread
      5. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Larry Svenson‏ @Larry_Svenson 11 Mar 2020
        Replying to @GidMK

        We came to a similar conclusion, but there is a lot of interesting material here. We are running our own SIR models for spread, hospital admission, ICU admission, and deaths. The math gets complex, but we are calibrating to multiple countries to give us a range of outcomes.

        3 replies 0 retweets 9 likes
      3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 11 Mar 2020
        Replying to @Larry_Svenson

        I think it's an interesting read, but the problem is the certainty. His assumptions appear to be extremely unlikely imo, and that's really not represented well in the piece

        1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
      4. Show replies
      1.  🌎 White supremacy kills  🌍‏ @madmissmattie 11 Mar 2020
        Replying to @GidMK @Joe_Leistman

        Chinese doctors have reported someone getting the virus after sitting 4.5 meters away from infected fellow bus rider. Another caught it after boarding the bus 30 minutes after infected rider left. Dr. John Campbell reports on what he read in a translation.https://youtu.be/FZV9z0RVhy4 

        0 replies 5 retweets 3 likes
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      1. New conversation
      2. Dr Lea Merone MBChB (hons) MPH&TM MSc FAFPHM Ⓥ‏ @LeaMerone 11 Mar 2020
        Replying to @GidMK

        I’ve shared largely because of the layman take home messages- which indeed i screenshot and circled. Social distancing early can lower the curve and save lives..... for that main reason I like this article

        1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
      3. Dr Lea Merone MBChB (hons) MPH&TM MSc FAFPHM Ⓥ‏ @LeaMerone 11 Mar 2020
        Replying to @LeaMerone @GidMK

        But then I’ve had recent discussions with people in the uk who are ill and didn’t see the point in self isolating. So I sent them this to emphasise- social distance Especially if you’re unwell!

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      4. End of conversation
      1. Alan Hayes‏ @alan_hayes_vu 13 Mar 2020
        Replying to @GidMK

        Don’t disagree as lots of uncertainty - but planning for a worse outcome is preferable to underestimating and seeing continued high rates of spreading. Europe at the moment is a good example.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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