For everyone dismissing the threat of #COVID19 as exaggerated and pointing out that the case fatality rate is "only" 2%, read this thread. If spread continues unabated, even if only 10% require hospitalization, our healthcare system could be overwhelmed by sometime in May.https://twitter.com/LizSpecht/status/1236095180459003909 …
-
Show this thread
-
Replying to @gorskon
This is a suspect thread because the growth assumption is really non physical. I'll do something on it later but I wouldn't place stock in it
1 reply 0 retweets 23 likes -
I agree. Lots of people have freaked out at me because of this thread, but it's completely ignoring the experience in every country that isn't the US. Very unlikely to be true imo
2 replies 1 retweet 15 likes -
Yup. You can't just extrapolate from initial growth rate of epidemic & presume that's it. Growth is typically sigmoidal & hits a carrying capacity. That thread was irresponsible & unphysical for ignoring empirical & modelling evidence
3 replies 3 retweets 29 likes -
Yep. One of the new papers that's on Medrxiv used the total number of cases to demonstrate that predicting on initial growth rate put you at 20x the true figure of confirmed cases after a few weeks of the epidemic in Wuhan
2 replies 1 retweet 27 likes -
These figures in fact. The observed cases vs. predictions using early datapic.twitter.com/ftIpSupi2W
3 replies 3 retweets 26 likes -
I can't find this paper -- would you be kind enough to post the link / citation?
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
This is the one https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.03.20030593v1 …
-
-
thank you!
0 replies 0 retweets 1 likeThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.