FACT 3: The TRUE case-fatality rate is likely to be between 0.3-1% (this is still high!) This is an estimate from the journal Lancet in the UK, and is echoed by a number of other publicationspic.twitter.com/GjlnmUaXFl
Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him
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FACT 3: The TRUE case-fatality rate is likely to be between 0.3-1% (this is still high!) This is an estimate from the journal Lancet in the UK, and is echoed by a number of other publicationspic.twitter.com/GjlnmUaXFl
Outbreaks of infectious disease usually start with an exponential growth curve but then flatten off
In the case of #COVID2019, you can see the actual vs predicted numbers based on exponential growth in these graphspic.twitter.com/Av5XYtqLSM
This is in large part due to public health measures, which is why you should LISTEN TO YOUR LOCAL HEALTH AUTHORITY Keep an eye on the news Be prepared to take action
FACT 5: Children are not severely impacted by the disease Very few children have died, and mostly kids experience only very mild symptomspic.twitter.com/mHVCag9phI
The biggest issue with children is that they do get infected, so there are worries that they will transmit the disease to others and spread it further
This makes sense to anyone who knows a child, given that they are basically walking petri dishes that will happily sneeze into your open mouth
FACT 6: Household spread appears to be relatively limited, with somewhere between 5-20% of households having a subsequent infection Having a sick relative doesn't appear currently to be a doom sentence
More specifically, the WHO estimates that between 3-10% of all household contacts (i.e. people living with a sick person) get sick, which is not as scary a message as you might've heardpic.twitter.com/Q9rNohuipR
It probably doesn't. Contained populations are very different, cruise ships in particular. This was from people in households in China primarily
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