There are a lot of panic-inducing threads out there about #COVID2019 and the #coronavirus that are going viral, so I thought I'd put together some much more reassuring facts for you to all think about



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FACT 1: By every indication,
#COVID19 responds extremely well to public health measures such as social distancing and quarantining3 replies 25 retweets 120 likesShow this thread -
This new paper from Wuhan found that the reproduction rate (how many people each sick person goes on to infect) dropped from nearly 4 at the start of the epidemic to only 0.3 once measures were put in place https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.03.20030593v1 …pic.twitter.com/Sy6JnyaVLj
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FACT 2: The virus is likely to be significantly less deadly than our current estimates suggest
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The problem here is that our current estimates are based on CONFIRMED cases. From that, the WHO has announced that the case-fatality ratio currently stands at 3%, meaning 3% of people who get the disease die
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HOWEVER, most experts agree that there are a lot of people who get only very mildly sick from
#COVID2019, never get tested, and so don't contribute to our case-fatality ratio One paper estimates this is up to 80% (!) of all cases5 replies 15 retweets 107 likesShow this thread -
Replying to @GidMK
I still keep thinking of the meeting where Dr Aylward from WHO said that there was not a lot of asymptomatic people in China. Is this incorrect or did I misread it?
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
No, but all of the evidence is emerging. What you're told today may not be true for very long
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