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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 8 Mar 2020

      There are a lot of panic-inducing threads out there about #COVID2019 and the #coronavirus that are going viral, so I thought I'd put together some much more reassuring facts for you to all think about 🧵🧵🧵

      21 replies 415 retweets 784 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 8 Mar 2020

      FACT 1: By every indication, #COVID19 responds extremely well to public health measures such as social distancing and quarantining

      3 replies 25 retweets 120 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 8 Mar 2020

      This new paper from Wuhan found that the reproduction rate (how many people each sick person goes on to infect) dropped from nearly 4 at the start of the epidemic to only 0.3 once measures were put in place https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.03.20030593v1 …pic.twitter.com/Sy6JnyaVLj

      5 replies 21 retweets 123 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 8 Mar 2020

      FACT 2: The virus is likely to be significantly less deadly than our current estimates suggest

      2 replies 12 retweets 90 likes
      Show this thread
    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 8 Mar 2020

      The problem here is that our current estimates are based on CONFIRMED cases. From that, the WHO has announced that the case-fatality ratio currently stands at 3%, meaning 3% of people who get the disease die

      2 replies 9 retweets 70 likes
      Show this thread
    6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 8 Mar 2020

      HOWEVER, most experts agree that there are a lot of people who get only very mildly sick from #COVID2019, never get tested, and so don't contribute to our case-fatality ratio One paper estimates this is up to 80% (!) of all cases

      5 replies 15 retweets 107 likes
      Show this thread
    7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 8 Mar 2020

      FACT 3: The TRUE case-fatality rate is likely to be between 0.3-1% (this is still high!) This is an estimate from the journal Lancet in the UK, and is echoed by a number of other publicationspic.twitter.com/GjlnmUaXFl

      5 replies 13 retweets 79 likes
      Show this thread
    8. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 8 Mar 2020

      FACT 4: THE GROWTH OF #COVID19 IS NOT EXPONENTIAL

      2 replies 14 retweets 78 likes
      Show this thread
    9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 8 Mar 2020

      Outbreaks of infectious disease usually start with an exponential growth curve but then flatten off In the case of #COVID2019, you can see the actual vs predicted numbers based on exponential growth in these graphspic.twitter.com/Av5XYtqLSM

      5 replies 17 retweets 78 likes
      Show this thread
    10. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 8 Mar 2020

      This is in large part due to public health measures, which is why you should LISTEN TO YOUR LOCAL HEALTH AUTHORITY Keep an eye on the news Be prepared to take action

      1 reply 17 retweets 104 likes
      Show this thread
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 8 Mar 2020

      FACT 5: Children are not severely impacted by the disease Very few children have died, and mostly kids experience only very mild symptomspic.twitter.com/mHVCag9phI

      3:44 PM - 8 Mar 2020
      • 14 Retweets
      • 76 Likes
      • AMHM Andre 习安徳 Zosia Religa David Ptarah ☕ Carebear 🐻 Sgt. K. Onyx Jeffrey Merrill Moeez
      6 replies 14 retweets 76 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 8 Mar 2020

          The biggest issue with children is that they do get infected, so there are worries that they will transmit the disease to others and spread it further

          1 reply 14 retweets 75 likes
          Show this thread
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 8 Mar 2020

          This makes sense to anyone who knows a child, given that they are basically walking petri dishes that will happily sneeze into your open mouth

          8 replies 21 retweets 214 likes
          Show this thread
        4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 8 Mar 2020

          FACT 6: Household spread appears to be relatively limited, with somewhere between 5-20% of households having a subsequent infection Having a sick relative doesn't appear currently to be a doom sentence

          3 replies 8 retweets 67 likes
          Show this thread
        5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 8 Mar 2020

          More specifically, the WHO estimates that between 3-10% of all household contacts (i.e. people living with a sick person) get sick, which is not as scary a message as you might've heardpic.twitter.com/Q9rNohuipR

          2 replies 13 retweets 63 likes
          Show this thread
        6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 8 Mar 2020

          Health Nerd Retweeted Trent  💊 🆔

          FACT 7: Thanks @trentyarwood for this excellent reminder that YOU CAN PREVENT THE SPREAD OS DISEASE Wash your hands, peoplehttps://twitter.com/trentyarwood/status/1236829423585779714?s=20 …

          Health Nerd added,

          Trent  💊 🆔 @trentyarwood
          Replying to @GidMK @MackayIM @MCBazacoPhD
          Hand washing is very effective at reducing your risk of infection and is simple, quick and easy. Washing with soap and water does just as well (but not portable) if there is <ahem> panic buying of alcohol hand sanitisers.
          2 replies 12 retweets 62 likes
          Show this thread
        7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 8 Mar 2020

          Note: I have tried to stick very much to established facts and well-supported arguments, but the nature of this disease is that everything is fluid! Some of this may/will change over the coming days/weeks

          8 replies 9 retweets 88 likes
          Show this thread
        8. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. Dr Melina Georgousakis‏ @Melina_Gee 8 Mar 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          Ping @Harrr1et 👌🏼

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Harriet Swearman‏ @Harrr1et 9 Mar 2020
          Replying to @Melina_Gee @GidMK

          Ok this makes me feel better!!! Slightly more measured than some of the stuff in the media!!! @Melina_Gee do you want me to share on any of our channels or just for my sanity!

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        4. Show replies
        1.  🌱VAX, MASK, & PURIFY AIR‏ @ElaineVigneault 9 Mar 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          We don’t know long term consequences of infection yet so it’s not wise to claim “Children are not severely impacted by the disease”. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41569-020-0360-5 …pic.twitter.com/CC5iafMJj8

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. steven#bitcoinmosher‏ @stevenmosher Feb 28
          Replying to @GidMK

          tell my nieces and nephews that their father my brother was taken out. you meant to say directly impacted

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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