There are a lot of panic-inducing threads out there about #COVID2019 and the #coronavirus that are going viral, so I thought I'd put together some much more reassuring facts for you to all think about



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HOWEVER, most experts agree that there are a lot of people who get only very mildly sick from
#COVID2019, never get tested, and so don't contribute to our case-fatality ratio One paper estimates this is up to 80% (!) of all casesShow this thread -
FACT 3: The TRUE case-fatality rate is likely to be between 0.3-1% (this is still high!) This is an estimate from the journal Lancet in the UK, and is echoed by a number of other publicationspic.twitter.com/GjlnmUaXFl
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FACT 4: THE GROWTH OF
#COVID19 IS NOT EXPONENTIALShow this thread -
Outbreaks of infectious disease usually start with an exponential growth curve but then flatten off In the case of
#COVID2019, you can see the actual vs predicted numbers based on exponential growth in these graphspic.twitter.com/Av5XYtqLSM
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This is in large part due to public health measures, which is why you should LISTEN TO YOUR LOCAL HEALTH AUTHORITY Keep an eye on the news Be prepared to take action
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FACT 5: Children are not severely impacted by the disease Very few children have died, and mostly kids experience only very mild symptomspic.twitter.com/mHVCag9phI
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The biggest issue with children is that they do get infected, so there are worries that they will transmit the disease to others and spread it further
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This makes sense to anyone who knows a child, given that they are basically walking petri dishes that will happily sneeze into your open mouth
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FACT 6: Household spread appears to be relatively limited, with somewhere between 5-20% of households having a subsequent infection Having a sick relative doesn't appear currently to be a doom sentence
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More specifically, the WHO estimates that between 3-10% of all household contacts (i.e. people living with a sick person) get sick, which is not as scary a message as you might've heardpic.twitter.com/Q9rNohuipR
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FACT 7: Thanks
@trentyarwood for this excellent reminder that YOU CAN PREVENT THE SPREAD OS DISEASE Wash your hands, peoplehttps://twitter.com/trentyarwood/status/1236829423585779714?s=20 …Show this thread -
Note: I have tried to stick very much to established facts and well-supported arguments, but the nature of this disease is that everything is fluid! Some of this may/will change over the coming days/weeks
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End of conversation
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