The first rule of epi club: ALWAYS ASK ABOUT THE DENOMINATOR
The second rule of epi club: ALWAYS ASK ABOUT THE DENOMINATOR
The third rule of epi club: POST CUTE PET PICS #epitwitter #coronavirushttps://twitter.com/abuttenheim/status/1236414772247232512 …
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Replying to @GidMK
I loved the US official last week saying most CFR figures are wrong and it’s actually Like 0.1% (No source, even though plausible) And then instantly follows with ‘yeah this is a denominator issue’ Yeah - so stop making up numbers!!!
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Replying to @drvyom
I've actually had this discussion a few times now - the case fatality ratio, i.e. current proportion of deaths/cases, is ~3% worldwide. The TRUE case fatality rate won't be known for a while, but is probably 0.5-1% based on best estimates
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This is assuming hospitals don’t get overwhelmed though, right? What underlying assumptions about the level patient care are made when defining the epidemiological “death rate” or do you just say here (without hosp. overwhelm) the death rate is x & there (with overwhelm) it is y?
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Replying to @aspiesuperwoman @GidMK
I'm pretty sure
@GidMK is making and highly aware of that assumption - it is worth talking about CFR of#COVID specifically before we start quantifying it's broader implications (which you're correct in alluding to - hospital bed/ICU bed occupancy rate/time)1 reply 0 retweets 1 like -
Replying to @drvyom
Part of the issue with CFR is that it is fluid. Some areas will have lower CFR as the health system deals effectively with the issue, some will be higher if they are overwhelmed
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Replying to @GidMK
Also some places have better health facilities, younger populations, More meaningful epidemiological data which all affect CFR etc (This is all obv af to Gid, more just for sake of completion for others reading this thread)
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I would say that most current figures are likely to be an overestimate of CFR - by all indications there's a large pool of asymptomatic/mild cases that aren't confirmed, which pushes the CFR up significantly
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