For everyone dismissing the threat of #COVID19 as exaggerated and pointing out that the case fatality rate is "only" 2%, read this thread. If spread continues unabated, even if only 10% require hospitalization, our healthcare system could be overwhelmed by sometime in May.https://twitter.com/LizSpecht/status/1236095180459003909 …
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Yup. You can't just extrapolate from initial growth rate of epidemic & presume that's it. Growth is typically sigmoidal & hits a carrying capacity. That thread was irresponsible & unphysical for ignoring empirical & modelling evidence
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Yep. One of the new papers that's on Medrxiv used the total number of cases to demonstrate that predicting on initial growth rate put you at 20x the true figure of confirmed cases after a few weeks of the epidemic in Wuhan
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Thank you and Dr Grimes for clarifying these things. It is terrifying out here sifting through information trying to verify truth from guess work. Your reasoned explanations make a huge difference.
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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