Is it just me or are there two conversations happening concurrently around #COVID19:
1) It's probably not that bad.
2) It's really, really bad.

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I think that’s accurate. People can feel like the messaging is either too scary or not scary enough and either way they’re arguably right
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I disagree. As a species we very rarely face events like this. Not scary enough results in death. Too scary doesn't. This is as close to a real minimax type problem as we can get. It means be scared and take action.
@mlipsitch says 20-60% infected * 3% = at least 1.98M dead.
End of conversation
New conversation -
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The fact is it's unpredictable and has a 50% daily growth rare with a poor testing regime. See compound interest.
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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