IMPORTANT #COVID19 POINT:
The main statistic that's being used to determine severity is the case-fatality rate (CFR)
CFR calculation is simple - the number of deaths divided by the number of cases
Currently, that's ~roughly~ 3:97, or 3%
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HOWEVER, this number is changing rapidly, especially WITHIN COUNTRIES The CFR for Iran was recently 16%, but has dropped in a few days to 4.2% The CFR for China was at one point less than 2% but is now around 3%
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One of the biggest issues is that it's really too early to determine a CFR anyway There are still MANY unknowns
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For example, how many people have mild infections? Not all of these people are tested, which means that the number of reported cases (used in our equations above) may be substantially lower than the true number
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Current expert opinion - based on statistical models and projections - is that the 'true' CFR will probably end up being somewhere between 1-2% That's not certain, but it's an educated guess https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762510 …
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Also, you really can't use the CFR for countries with very small numbers of infections as a useful guide. Singapore has a CFR of 0 (no deaths), but that's probably not the true death rate of the disease
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It may turn out that some places have a much higher rate of death than others - this is not uncommon in such outbreaks But for now, we really don't know and can't say for sure
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This thread prompted by all the people freaking out at the presumed 6% CFR in the United States That's almost certain to drop quickly in the coming days. Current reported infections probably represent only the sickest people
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I've read a few estimates, probably somewhere between 1.5 and 3 I believe
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