Skip to content
By using Twitter’s services you agree to our Cookies Use. We and our partners operate globally and use cookies, including for analytics, personalisation, and ads.
  • Home Home Home, current page.
  • About

Saved searches

  • Remove
  • In this conversation
    Verified accountProtected Tweets @
Suggested users
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Language: English
    • Bahasa Indonesia
    • Bahasa Melayu
    • Català
    • Čeština
    • Dansk
    • Deutsch
    • English UK
    • Español
    • Filipino
    • Français
    • Hrvatski
    • Italiano
    • Magyar
    • Nederlands
    • Norsk
    • Polski
    • Português
    • Română
    • Slovenčina
    • Suomi
    • Svenska
    • Tiếng Việt
    • Türkçe
    • Ελληνικά
    • Български език
    • Русский
    • Српски
    • Українська мова
    • עִבְרִית
    • العربية
    • فارسی
    • मराठी
    • हिन्दी
    • বাংলা
    • ગુજરાતી
    • தமிழ்
    • ಕನ್ನಡ
    • ภาษาไทย
    • 한국어
    • 日本語
    • 简体中文
    • 繁體中文
  • Have an account? Log in
    Have an account?
    · Forgot password?

    New to Twitter?
    Sign up
GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

Tweets

Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

Tweets

  • © 2021 Twitter
  • About
  • Help Center
  • Terms
  • Privacy policy
  • Cookies
  • Ads info
Dismiss
Previous
Next

Go to a person's profile

Saved searches

  • Remove
  • In this conversation
    Verified accountProtected Tweets @
Suggested users
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @

Promote this Tweet

Block

  • Tweet with a location

    You can add location information to your Tweets, such as your city or precise location, from the web and via third-party applications. You always have the option to delete your Tweet location history. Learn more

    Your lists

    Create a new list


    Under 100 characters, optional

    Privacy

    Copy link to Tweet

    Embed this Tweet

    Embed this Video

    Add this Tweet to your website by copying the code below. Learn more

    Add this video to your website by copying the code below. Learn more

    Hmm, there was a problem reaching the server.

    By embedding Twitter content in your website or app, you are agreeing to the Twitter Developer Agreement and Developer Policy.

    Preview

    Why you're seeing this ad

    Log in to Twitter

    · Forgot password?
    Don't have an account? Sign up »

    Sign up for Twitter

    Not on Twitter? Sign up, tune into the things you care about, and get updates as they happen.

    Sign up
    Have an account? Log in »

    Two-way (sending and receiving) short codes:

    Country Code For customers of
    United States 40404 (any)
    Canada 21212 (any)
    United Kingdom 86444 Vodafone, Orange, 3, O2
    Brazil 40404 Nextel, TIM
    Haiti 40404 Digicel, Voila
    Ireland 51210 Vodafone, O2
    India 53000 Bharti Airtel, Videocon, Reliance
    Indonesia 89887 AXIS, 3, Telkomsel, Indosat, XL Axiata
    Italy 4880804 Wind
    3424486444 Vodafone
    » See SMS short codes for other countries

    Confirmation

     

    Welcome home!

    This timeline is where you’ll spend most of your time, getting instant updates about what matters to you.

    Tweets not working for you?

    Hover over the profile pic and click the Following button to unfollow any account.

    Say a lot with a little

    When you see a Tweet you love, tap the heart — it lets the person who wrote it know you shared the love.

    Spread the word

    The fastest way to share someone else’s Tweet with your followers is with a Retweet. Tap the icon to send it instantly.

    Join the conversation

    Add your thoughts about any Tweet with a Reply. Find a topic you’re passionate about, and jump right in.

    Learn the latest

    Get instant insight into what people are talking about now.

    Get more of what you love

    Follow more accounts to get instant updates about topics you care about.

    Find what's happening

    See the latest conversations about any topic instantly.

    Never miss a Moment

    Catch up instantly on the best stories happening as they unfold.

    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 2 Feb 2020

      Since everyone's so read up on R0 (reproductive number) of diseases due to the #coronavirus now, thought I'd do a quick thread explaining herd immunity Both concepts are closely related!

      8 replies 53 retweets 126 likes
      Show this thread
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 2 Feb 2020

      The R0 of a disease is the number of new people the disease infects, on average, in a naive population (i.e. never had the disease before) For the #nCoV19, that number is ~2

      2:55 PM - 2 Feb 2020
      • 2 Retweets
      • 9 Likes
      • Gedanken Karrussel Julie Adam Randy Huebner kt Lisa Bari 💉 Carolyn thanks for banning Katie No one Prof AMIT GUPTA,MD DM
      2 replies 2 retweets 9 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 2 Feb 2020

          So, 2 new people infected per person who gets sick How does this relate to herd immunity? Well, herd immunity is what happens when enough people are immune to a disease that the reproduction rate (R) drops below 1

          1 reply 2 retweets 6 likes
          Show this thread
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 2 Feb 2020

          An R below 1 means that, on average, each person infects less than one new person, so the disease eventually stops spreading Great news right?

          1 reply 2 retweets 7 likes
          Show this thread
        4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 2 Feb 2020

          For different diseases, that means that you need different numbers of people vaccinated to prevent transmission The formula is pretty simple - (R0-1)/R0 = % immune required

          1 reply 2 retweets 10 likes
          Show this thread
        5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 2 Feb 2020

          For the coronavirus, that would mean that (2-1)/2 = 50% of the population would need to be vaccinated to prevent spread of the disease, on average (it's not that infectious!) For measles, with an R0 of 15-18, the number is 92-95%!

          1 reply 8 retweets 29 likes
          Show this thread
        6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 2 Feb 2020

          You can also reduce the effective reproduction rate, R, using other measures like quarantining sick people, which is what we're doing now

          1 reply 2 retweets 10 likes
          Show this thread
        7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 2 Feb 2020

          P.S. you can also see populations reaching herd immunity if enough people catch a disease, but this has the disadvantage of lots of people getting sick which is why we vaccinate #VaccinesWork

          1 reply 5 retweets 16 likes
          Show this thread
        8. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 2 Feb 2020

          Oh, also if we took the R0 of 3.8 that's been the highest estimate for the coronavirus (and sprouted the infamous PANIC THERMONUCLEAR PANDEMIC tweet), the % vaccinated would have to be (3.8-1)/2.8 = 74% vaccinated to reach herd immunity

          1 reply 4 retweets 14 likes
          Show this thread
        9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 2 Feb 2020

          (Above tweet should read (3.8-1)/3.8 = 74%, sorry about the typo)

          1 reply 1 retweet 10 likes
          Show this thread
        10. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. Adam Alethier  🌊‏ @AdamAlethier 2 Feb 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          Thanks for the breakdown! How certain is it at this point that the R0 is ~2 at this point? What data is this based on?

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 2 Feb 2020
          Replying to @AdamAlethier

          Not certain at all, could be anywhere between 1.4 and 3, lots of estimates right now but we won't know for sure for a while

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        4. Show replies

      Loading seems to be taking a while.

      Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.

        Promoted Tweet

        false

        • © 2021 Twitter
        • About
        • Help Center
        • Terms
        • Privacy policy
        • Cookies
        • Ads info