Screening is one of the most counterintuitive things in medicine
It is often BAD to test for disease!
Might sound like it makes no sense, but it's true
https://twitter.com/smh/status/1221596209674182657 …
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Probably the best example personal vs public good. Everyone wants their illness diagnosed. We don't care so much about other people getting inaccurate positive diagnoses.
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But as this study shows it's not even limited to that. It can be bad for you to have your disease diagnosed. Very complex
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I agree. I still trip up when I try to explain it off the top of my head
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It is so hard to convince people of this.
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True, but some refuse treatment, eg Andrew R had raised PSA (not consented to!) at 45yrs; told 3 yrs to live without surgery; refused, now alive & fine 21 years later http://www.prostate-cancer.org.au/mens-personal-journeys/ …
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Bayes' theorem (applying a test to a low prevalence population delivers more false positives) AND treatment of an asymptomatic condition found only on screwning can be worse than the disease.
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Why counterintuitive? If you are still struggling with it, Gilbert Welch has done some good writing about this, both in sci lit and for general public.
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