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Health Nerd

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Blogger. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
medium.com/@gidmk
Vrijeme pridruživanja: studeni 2015.

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    Health Nerd‏ @GidMK 23. sij
    • Prijavi Tweet

    Everyone loves dogs, so a study that found that dogs could lower your risk of schizophrenia has been Big News Unfortunately, I'm here as The Science Grinch to ruin everyone's day Dogs probably don't stop schizophrenia 🧵pic.twitter.com/h6C1D62a7N

    13:39 - 23. sij 2020.
    • 24 proslijeđena tweeta
    • 83 oznake „sviđa mi se”
    • Modern Methods Dog Training Justyna Włodarczyk Mitch Hopper H dog Melissa Logan Joshua Zadro Jack O'Sullivan ananth NVΛN Streetwise Dogs
    6 replies 24 proslijeđena tweeta 83 korisnika označavaju da im se sviđa
      1. Novi razgovor
      2. Health Nerd‏ @GidMK 23. sij
        • Prijavi Tweet

        Study is here:https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0225320#sec012 …

        1 reply 0 proslijeđenih tweetova 1 korisnik označava da mu se sviđa
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      3. Health Nerd‏ @GidMK 23. sij
        • Prijavi Tweet

        So, what did the scientists do? Well, on first blush it looks like they did a simple cohort study - took a group of people, split them up by whether they were exposed to cats/dogs, and compared their mental health years laterpic.twitter.com/QzofRQIDQm

        1 reply 0 proslijeđenih tweetova 3 korisnika označavaju da im se sviđa
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      4. Health Nerd‏ @GidMK 23. sij
        • Prijavi Tweet

        But then you look a little closer, and you realize that this is actually a CASE-CONTROL study, because the authors selected their patients based on outcomes (mental health diagnosis), not exposure (having pets)pic.twitter.com/DSqVa6SVLF

        1 reply 0 proslijeđenih tweetova 10 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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      5. Health Nerd‏ @GidMK 23. sij
        • Prijavi Tweet

        (Tip for non-epi people: the difference between a case-control and cohort can be hard to get at first, but just look at how they selected their participants. If they picked people based on their outcomes, it's case-control)

        0 proslijeđenih tweetova 8 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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      6. Health Nerd‏ @GidMK 23. sij
        • Prijavi Tweet

        Ok, so it's a case-control being reported as a cohort study That's a problem, maybe, but not that much Let's look at the resultspic.twitter.com/0UWqXnAYrn

        1 reply 0 proslijeđenih tweetova 2 korisnika označavaju da im se sviđa
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      7. Health Nerd‏ @GidMK 23. sij
        • Prijavi Tweet

        And this is where things get really, REALLY weird Compare this sentence in the results to the graph. Notice anything strange here?pic.twitter.com/gPsfY11Oa6

        1 reply 1 proslijeđeni tweet 3 korisnika označavaju da im se sviđa
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      8. Health Nerd‏ @GidMK 23. sij
        • Prijavi Tweet

        (Note: I'm not talking about how they used cross-sectional data to fudge longitudinal analyses. We'll get to that)

        1 reply 0 proslijeđenih tweetova 2 korisnika označavaju da im se sviđa
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      9. Health Nerd‏ @GidMK 23. sij
        • Prijavi Tweet

        The sentence I highlighted above is just...wrong If that's the analysis they did, then they didn't show that "the time of the first household pet dog...was associated with a significantly decreased hazard of having a schizophrenia diagnosis"

        1 reply 0 proslijeđenih tweetova 3 korisnika označavaju da im se sviđa
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      10. Health Nerd‏ @GidMK 23. sij
        • Prijavi Tweet

        This graph shows a Kaplan-Meier curve plotting the proportion who got a dog against the age that they reported getting one, by group It's testing whether people who are currently diagnosed with SP or BPD were more likely to get a dog as a child!pic.twitter.com/8TpWFUdsz3

        1 reply 0 proslijeđenih tweetova 6 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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      11. Health Nerd‏ @GidMK 23. sij
        • Prijavi Tweet

        In other words, the main finding of this paper, the one reported everywhere, is NOT that dogs reduce your risk of schizophrenia, it's that schizophrenia reduces your risk of dogs!pic.twitter.com/F3Bd14tNLP

        1 reply 2 proslijeđena tweeta 26 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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      12. Health Nerd‏ @GidMK 23. sij
        • Prijavi Tweet

        Now, it's not the fault of the media that this was reported wrong - it's wrong IN THE PAPER This is perhaps not surprising, because there are quite a few other mistakes...

        1 reply 0 proslijeđenih tweetova 4 korisnika označavaju da im se sviđa
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      13. Health Nerd‏ @GidMK 23. sij
        • Prijavi Tweet

        This sentence is statistically weird. If you're correcting for multiple comparisons (good) you can't just undo that by using the 'trend'pic.twitter.com/AiaTknBffm

        1 reply 0 proslijeđenih tweetova 1 korisnik označava da mu se sviđa
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      14. Health Nerd‏ @GidMK 23. sij
        • Prijavi Tweet

        The authors also report 'relative risks' even though they used logistic models You ~can~ convert the results of a logistic model to a relative risk, but it's not that easy and they didn't report doing so, which means the RRs are probably just ORspic.twitter.com/OB1QLZ7jJA

        1 reply 0 proslijeđenih tweetova 5 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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      15. Health Nerd‏ @GidMK 23. sij
        • Prijavi Tweet

        Health Nerd je proslijedio/a tweet korisnika/ceHealth Nerd

        But all of this pales in comparison to the massive issue I skipped past earlier The study used longitudinal analysis (Cox/KM) to analyze cross-sectional datahttps://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1220462617472487425?s=20 …

        Health Nerd je dodan/na,

        Health Nerd @GidMK
        (Note: I'm not talking about how they used cross-sectional data to fudge longitudinal analyses. We'll get to that)
        Prikaži ovu nit
        1 reply 0 proslijeđenih tweetova 2 korisnika označavaju da im se sviđa
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      16. Health Nerd‏ @GidMK 23. sij
        • Prijavi Tweet

        You'd think from the results that they had monitored children over time, recorded when they got a pet, and then followed up years later to find out if they got a diagnosis But remember - this is a CASE-CONTROL study

        1 reply 0 proslijeđenih tweetova 4 korisnika označavaju da im se sviđa
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      17. Health Nerd‏ @GidMK 23. sij
        • Prijavi Tweet

        What the authors actually did is ASK PEOPLE WITH A CURRENT DIAGNOSIS when they remembered getting a dog as a child This is an inherently flawed approachpic.twitter.com/Kwo4i0guDD

        1 reply 1 proslijeđeni tweet 7 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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      18. Health Nerd‏ @GidMK 23. sij
        • Prijavi Tweet

        Imagine asking someone who is currently going through an inpatient admission for acute psychosis when they remember getting a dog as a child, and using that as your exposure variable You see the problem

        1 reply 0 proslijeđenih tweetova 12 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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      19. Health Nerd‏ @GidMK 23. sij
        • Prijavi Tweet

        So this study didn't even really measure whether people who were diagnosed with schizophrenia were more likely to get dogs as children It measured who was more likely to REMEMBER getting a dog as a childpic.twitter.com/9wIOr6YxN0

        1 reply 0 proslijeđenih tweetova 12 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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      20. Health Nerd‏ @GidMK 23. sij
        • Prijavi Tweet

        And using the time that they remembered having a dog as the time-point for a longitudinal analysis is...problematic For one thing, you don't have accurate pet death data. You don't actually know how long these people were exposed to pets!

        1 reply 0 proslijeđenih tweetova 4 korisnika označavaju da im se sviđa
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      21. Health Nerd‏ @GidMK 23. sij
        • Prijavi Tweet

        I'm going to stop here, because while there's more there really isn't much point in going through it allpic.twitter.com/9ZPrh2WLfs

        1 reply 0 proslijeđenih tweetova 7 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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      22. Health Nerd‏ @GidMK 23. sij
        • Prijavi Tweet

        The fact that the analyses were the wrong way around, the exposure was a bit meaningless, and that the stats were probably misreported is probably enough And yet, the study was published, and got into the NYT *sigh*

        1 reply 0 proslijeđenih tweetova 6 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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      23. Health Nerd‏ @GidMK 23. sij
        • Prijavi Tweet

        TL:DR - dogs don't prevent schizophrenia - schizophrenia may prevent dogs - even then, probably not - this study is a mess

        3 proslijeđena tweeta 32 korisnika označavaju da im se sviđa
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      24. Health Nerd‏ @GidMK 23. sij
        • Prijavi Tweet

        Health Nerd je proslijedio/a tweet korisnika/ceDarren L Dahly

        If you want more info, @statsepi and @ADAlthousePhD explain really well in this thread:https://twitter.com/statsepi/status/1220015078726098944?s=20 …

        Health Nerd je dodan/na,

        Darren L Dahly @statsepi
        I got 100 bucks for anyone from @jhubiostat that can explain what was actually done in this paper! 😜 #statstwitter https://twitter.com/JohnsHopkinsSPH/status/1220003201165996033 …
        Prikaži ovu nit
        0 proslijeđenih tweetova 3 korisnika označavaju da im se sviđa
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      25. Kraj razgovora

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