RELATIVE RISK INCREASE: 45% ABSOLUTE RISK INCREASE: ~0.05%https://twitter.com/ChrissyRonkz/status/1215708126474797057 …
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Replying to @justsaysrisks
If 13% of women in their lifetime get breasts cancer and there is a 45% increase don’t you mean 5%?
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Replying to @GregCfollows @justsaysrisks
I think the confusion here is that the study is talking about per year risk, not lifetime risk, as it's based on a (if I remember correctly) still ongoing prospective cohort study.
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Indeed. And the risk increase associated with hair dye was very small, which is perhaps unsurprising
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The absolute risk increase PER YEAR was small. Absolute risks modeled across a lifetime can be quite large. A risk of 0.05% per year is about a 14% risk across 30 years, whereas a risk of 0.1% per year is about 26% across 30 years.
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That's not correct. A yearly increase of 0.05% in absolute terms is 1.5% over 30 years
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Replying to @GidMK @theangelremiel and
To put it another way, based on the population in the study, about 21 women who never dye their hair would get breast cancer in 30 years. For women who dye their hair 6+ times per year, that rises to 23, roughly
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Did you get 0.05% from the paper or the tweet? I think we need to work from the HR of 1.45 in black women so we are all on the same page. But stating a 0.05% increase is obscene if you are trying to communicate risk to women and their families who care about their lifetime risk.
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I calculated the ARD from the study
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