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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 8 Jan 2020

      Relative risk ratios are also pretty easy. It's just the risk of one thing divided by another Let's say we've got 2 groups A and B. A has a 10% risk of the event, B has a 20% risk What's the risk ratio of B:A?

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
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    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 8 Jan 2020

      As I said, it's easy and intuitive The risk in group B is double that of A This is how VIRTUALLY ALL DIFFERENCES are represented in the media

      1 reply 0 retweets 9 likes
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    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 8 Jan 2020

      The problem is, sometimes relative risk doesn't make sense to use. In those cases, what's often used instead as an estimate of the risk ratio is what's called an odds ratio

      1 reply 0 retweets 8 likes
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    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 8 Jan 2020

      Odds are fairly simple to calculate, but a bit less intuitive than risks The odds of something happening are the events divided by the non-events So if 10 in 100 people have an event, the ODDS are 10/90 = 0.11

      1 reply 1 retweet 7 likes
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    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 8 Jan 2020

      The ODDS RATIO is the ratio of one odds to another Take the same example - 10/100 events in group A, 20/100 events in group B What's the odds ratio?

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
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    6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 8 Jan 2020

      Well, the first odds we've worked out already - 0.11 For group B, it's 20/80 = 0.25 So the ratio of the odds B:A is 0.25/0.11 = 2.25

      1 reply 1 retweet 4 likes
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    7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 8 Jan 2020

      So our relative risk ratio is 2 Our odds ratio is 2.25 They are different, but used interchangeably by the press!pic.twitter.com/aq9Aw0jduN

      1 reply 1 retweet 13 likes
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    8. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 8 Jan 2020

      The thing is, by definition odds ratios are higher than relative risk ratios - it's mathematically certain When the risks are low, this effect is small, but if the risks are big it's very noticeable

      1 reply 1 retweet 10 likes
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    9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 8 Jan 2020

      For example, if your two risks are 0.01% and 0.02%, the risk ratio is 2 and the odds ratio is: (0.02/99.98)/(0.01/99.99) = 2.0002 Barely different

      1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
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    10. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 8 Jan 2020

      But if the two risks are 20% and 40%, the risk ratio is still 2 (40/20) but the odds ratio becomes VERY different: (40/60)/(20/80) = 2.67 That's a lot higher!pic.twitter.com/73Fc7CxeUU

      1 reply 1 retweet 9 likes
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      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 8 Jan 2020

      Going back to this headline that I picked up - it looks at a study that used logistic regression, which spits out odds ratiospic.twitter.com/8vHaEBaLIS

      5:48 PM - 8 Jan 2020
      • 1 Retweet
      • 5 Likes
      • ANISH KAR Son of God, Ronald J. Dodge 𝕋𝕖𝕩𝕒𝕤 ℂ𝕙𝕖𝕖𝕤𝕖𝕔𝕒𝕜𝕖 Gina Reed Miller
      1 reply 1 retweet 5 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 8 Jan 2020

          The results were reported as odds, with vapers having a 1.83 times higher odds of stroke than non-vapers Given that the prevalence of stroke was 2-4% in the groups, that means that the risk ratio would be a bit lower than 1.83

          1 reply 1 retweet 8 likes
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        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 8 Jan 2020

          In other words, the headline rounds UP from 83% to a 100% increase (double), but in actual fact it's more likely that the risk is somewhere around 75% instead!

          1 reply 1 retweet 9 likes
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        4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 8 Jan 2020

          And this is done almost ubiquitously across the board It's not really the media's fault - scientists do it all the time as well!pic.twitter.com/BjxCDlughU

          1 reply 0 retweets 15 likes
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        5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 8 Jan 2020

          It's also really hard to tell if the study used risks or odds unless you actually read it, which adds a layer of complexity to the matter

          1 reply 0 retweets 15 likes
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        6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 8 Jan 2020

          Honestly, I want to end on a nice easy note, but the fact is that odds are confusing, a lot of researchers get them wrong, and it's unlikely we'll have a solution to this any time soon Hurray!

          2 replies 0 retweets 11 likes
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        7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 8 Jan 2020

          Anyway, a reasonable proportions of the headlines you've seen probably overestimate the actual risk because the studies used odds ratios 👍

          4 replies 1 retweet 10 likes
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        8. End of conversation

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