I get asked a lot on @justsaysrisks how the risks are calculated
There are a couple of wayshttps://twitter.com/SiFTW/status/1191300598123118592 …
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In these cases, I use the population level risk of the event to calculate an estimated absolute risk increase based on the figures in the study
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So, say they found a relative increase of 20% and the population prevalence/incidence (depending on study) is 0.1%, the absolute risk increase would be around 0.02% (this is an estimate so I use ~ to indicate uncertainty)
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In the particular case from the top of this thread, the absolute risk is readily calculable from publicly available CDC mortality data, which is what the insurance company in the article used to get their relative figure in the first place, expressed as a % chance
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