Here is a challenge #EpiTwitter
Rewrite the conclusion of the abstract of this article while avoiding the absence of evidence fallacy https://twitter.com/TheLancet/status/1158310927877443584 …pic.twitter.com/X785BfShWo
Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him
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Here is a challenge #EpiTwitter
Rewrite the conclusion of the abstract of this article while avoiding the absence of evidence fallacy https://twitter.com/TheLancet/status/1158310927877443584 …pic.twitter.com/X785BfShWo
The use of UA was indistinguishable from placebo, with the likely outcomes including both protective effects and harms. Thus, this evidence indicates that UA is unlikely to be of benefit etc etc
I like the first sentence. My question is: why say "unlikely to be of benefit" in the second? Is that really true for this setting or is it that we just don't know?
I guess in a technical sense, but I think most clinicians reading studies like this want some sort of take-home, and in many ways "we just don't know" in terms of benefit for an intervention that has definite risks is pretty similar to "unlikely to be of benefit"
Although I suppose this is where a better understanding of the literature is important - I have no idea about the background for this drug so that might change the conclusion!
For the sake of argument: would you support a conclusion "unlikely to benefit" if the trial had enrolled a total of 4 people?
No. I think part of that assessment is based on my cursory reading of the study itself
Agreed, because 4 people would be too small to say anything useful about the effect size. But imo the same holds for the effect of UA in the Lancet pub: you need more participants.
Would you say the same if they had found a relatively large statistical difference (say, CI 0.5-0.9, point estimate 0.7)?
No, although I would argue it is still pretty difficult to talk about the effect size
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