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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 8 Sep 2019

    THIS IS SO TOTALLY ABSURD I CANNOT EVEN Study: vague association between prenatal stress and long-term mental health Headlines:pic.twitter.com/m2ml3MrIRk

    10:41 PM - 8 Sep 2019
    • 8 Retweets
    • 36 Likes
    • Anna Walsh ANutr Ramón Gamarra Rueda أريج Daniel See Dominique Heinke is off bird watching or something Tomas Folke Matthias Apfelthaler Dr. Sara Bru Garcia Betty
    3 replies 8 retweets 36 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 8 Sep 2019

        Study is here: https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/the-british-journal-of-psychiatry/article/role-of-prenatal-stress-as-a-pathway-to-personality-disorder-longitudinal-birth-cohort-study/6F9B49AA8704D8F31817960DCCB5FCFD …

        3 replies 1 retweet 1 like
        Show this thread
      3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 8 Sep 2019

        The study was a very simple cohort study. They took 3600 kids who were born in 1975/76, followed them for 40 years, and split them up based on how stressed their mothers reported being before they were bornpic.twitter.com/iILZbYkTvB

        1 reply 1 retweet 1 like
        Show this thread
      4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 8 Sep 2019

        After correcting for a modest number of confounders, they found that kids whose mothers were stressed when they were pregnant were more likely to have mental health problems when they grew uppic.twitter.com/jLgOLhB9BZ

        1 reply 2 retweets 1 like
        Show this thread
      5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 8 Sep 2019

        Basically, when mothers were stressed their kids had worse mental health To be honest, that's not a huge finding in my opinionpic.twitter.com/gwj1IdxgkJ

        1 reply 1 retweet 4 likes
        Show this thread
      6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 8 Sep 2019

        Thing is, this study also had some ~serious~ problems For one thing, the sample size seems big, but the number of kids who developed mental health issues was just 40 out of 3600!pic.twitter.com/J6ixcqTm9S

        1 reply 1 retweet 4 likes
        Show this thread
      7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 8 Sep 2019

        They also really didn't control for many things - while this may have been due to sample size, it seriously limited the conclusions

        1 reply 1 retweet 4 likes
        Show this thread
      8. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 8 Sep 2019

        They didn't, for example, control for maternal alcohol or drug intake, which can both have a HUGE impact on childrens' mental health

        1 reply 1 retweet 5 likes
        Show this thread
      9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 8 Sep 2019

        The absolute risk increase was also pretty miniscule Kids exposed to no stress had a 0.5% risk of developing personality disorders Kids exposed to some stress had a 1.6% risk Triple the odds, but only 1.1% risk increase!pic.twitter.com/qTpdRcW2oP

        1 reply 1 retweet 5 likes
        Show this thread
      10. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 8 Sep 2019

        Also, the study assessed stress using one questionnaire given partway through the pregnancy in 1975, which I'd argue is...problematic

        1 reply 1 retweet 4 likes
        Show this thread
      11. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 8 Sep 2019

        On top of all of this, the study used a statistical technique called logistic regression Without going into the details, this is very questionable for a study like this

        1 reply 1 retweet 2 likes
        Show this thread
      12. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 8 Sep 2019

        Basically, if you have too few outcomes (i.e. only 40) in your sample, and include a bunch of covariates in the statistical model, you end up with a bit of a meaningless result I mean, just look at those confidence intervals!pic.twitter.com/kIKGKcoSov

        1 reply 1 retweet 5 likes
        Show this thread
      13. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 8 Sep 2019

        (As a side note, there appear to be a few numerical errors in the paper, such as this one in the table above)pic.twitter.com/XB7m1aiQ20

        1 reply 1 retweet 3 likes
        Show this thread
      14. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 8 Sep 2019

        If you read that table, kids exposed to "any" stress have 3.37x the odds of having any diagnosis of personality disorders, but the confidence interval goes from 1.61x to 7.07x That's ~huge~

        1 reply 1 retweet 2 likes
        Show this thread
      15. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 8 Sep 2019

        TL:DR: - association between stress in pregnancy and kids getting personality disorders - very weak - risk increase is tiny - statistical analysis is problematic - HUGE potential for residual confounding - ALMOST CERTAINLY NOT SOMETHING FOR MUMS TO WORRY ABOUT

        1 reply 1 retweet 6 likes
        Show this thread
      16. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 8 Sep 2019

        Now, while the media certainly had a role to play in the misinterpretation of this study, I think the problem started in the conclusions This is not well worded at allpic.twitter.com/cIm8jvpLvi

        1 reply 1 retweet 4 likes
        Show this thread
      17. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 8 Sep 2019

        The authors have been quoted elsewhere saying that this definitely isn't causal, but if you read the conclusions of the study it sounds like it absolutely is That's a huge problem

        1 reply 1 retweet 8 likes
        Show this thread
      18. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 9 Sep 2019

        Blog up on thishttps://medium.com/@gidmk/dont-stress-too-much-about-pregnancy-stress-d933eb377b8c …

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        Show this thread
      19. End of conversation

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