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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 3 Sep 2019

      Headlines: Diet soft drinks linked to cancer, death. DRINK THEM AND DIE Study: - observational research - small increased absolute risk even when increasing drink consumption by >6000% - LOWEST RISK WAS FOR PEOPLE WHO DRANK 100-200ML OF DIET DRINKS A DAYpic.twitter.com/t320fCU6zW

      10 replies 108 retweets 205 likes
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    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 3 Sep 2019

      Study is here:https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2749350?guestAccessKey=b99410a9-8afc-4953-b328-bbb2620dfacd&utm_source=For_The_Media&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=ftm_links&utm_content=tfl&utm_term=090319 …

      1 reply 1 retweet 12 likes
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    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 3 Sep 2019

      Basic story - scientists looked at ~a lot~ of people (450,000) for a long time, and split them up depending on how many soft drinks they drankpic.twitter.com/MDv0AiTHEd

      1 reply 0 retweets 15 likes
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    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 3 Sep 2019

      At the end of 16 years of follow-up, those who drank >2 soft drinks a day had an increased risk of many bad things (cancer, death, cardiovascular disease) than those who completely abstained This was true for sugar and artificially sweetened drinkspic.twitter.com/wAaXgG25pW

      2 replies 0 retweets 12 likes
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    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 3 Sep 2019

      The authors used standard Cox regression models, which allowed them to control for a range of factors They concluded that there's a likely association between soft drink consumption and BAD THINGS Howeverpic.twitter.com/5HN1XeOGoW

      3 replies 0 retweets 9 likes
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    6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 3 Sep 2019

      Health Nerd Retweeted RelativelyRisky

      Firstly, the absolute risk increase was pretty small across the boardhttps://twitter.com/justsaysrisks/status/1168995180797747201?s=20 …

      Health Nerd added,

      RelativelyRisky @justsaysrisks
      RELATIVE RISK INCREASE: 25-50% ABSOLUTE RISK INCREASE: 0.7-2% https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/9854098/diet-fizzy-drinks-increase-risk-heart-attack-deadly-stroke-death/ …
      1 reply 0 retweets 15 likes
      Show this thread
    7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 3 Sep 2019

      In other words, if someone went from drinking 1 can of Diet Coke a YEAR to 2 cans A DAY they would increase their risk of, say, cancer, by less than 1%

      1 reply 6 retweets 23 likes
      Show this thread
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 3 Sep 2019

      Secondly, THE RISK INCREASE WAS NON-LINEAR In practical terms, this means that the people who were at the lowest risk were people who drank roughly one can of Coke/Diet Coke every 2 dayspic.twitter.com/Tip3pKMNTK

      2:32 PM - 3 Sep 2019
      • 2 Retweets
      • 19 Likes
      • Bryan Boling Kate Kerin Dave DuPlantis Dustin Peterson Greg McKone fights #ClimateChange 🌎🇨🇦💚 Gold Coals Erik Ruth Bowers 🏭🏘🏢Sean Galbraith🗻❄️💉
      3 replies 2 retweets 19 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 3 Sep 2019

          If we're going to be consistent in using this research, we should encourage modest soft drink consumption, which I find absolutely hilarious

          2 replies 5 retweets 50 likes
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        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 3 Sep 2019

          This brings us to arguably the most important point - this research was OBSERVATIONALpic.twitter.com/02OPAfKlqG

          1 reply 1 retweet 16 likes
          Show this thread
        4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 3 Sep 2019

          Now, observational research can be incredibly useful and meaningful for public health, but there are also some real difficulties in drawing causal conclusions from studies like this

          1 reply 2 retweets 21 likes
          Show this thread
        5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 3 Sep 2019

          In other words, we don't know if the increased risk of Bad Things was due to soft drink consumption or something that the study didn't measure

          1 reply 1 retweet 27 likes
          Show this thread
        6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 3 Sep 2019

          For example, we know that ethnicity and income can change someone's risk of death, but the study didn't control for these things at all Could be that people who drink more soft drinks are just less well off than those who don't!

          1 reply 1 retweet 18 likes
          Show this thread
        7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 3 Sep 2019

          Another hilarious thing about the study was that for some diseases, soft drinks were REALLY protective at low doses For example, drinking an extra Diet Coke a week REDUCED your risk of breast cancer by 21% 😂

          2 replies 4 retweets 38 likes
          Show this thread
        8. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 3 Sep 2019

          Realistically, it's more likely that there are some significant confounders still remaining so we just don't know whether soft drinks = death/cancer from this study

          1 reply 0 retweets 14 likes
          Show this thread
        9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 3 Sep 2019

          Also, for the epi nerds, the study authors attribute the reduction in risk at low doses to reverse confounding, but I find this argument unconvincing

          1 reply 0 retweets 13 likes
          Show this thread
        10. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 3 Sep 2019

          Firstly, they did a specific sensitivity analysis to try and control for reverse causality which didn't change the results, so their own results don't agree with this interpretation

          1 reply 0 retweets 10 likes
          Show this thread
        11. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 3 Sep 2019

          Secondly, this is absolutely a non-differential effect, so you'd expect it to apply equally across all groups of the study rather than only reducing the observed risk in one particular group of people

          2 replies 0 retweets 15 likes
          Show this thread
        12. End of conversation

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