Again, you're arguing from ignorance. Since 1994, the deaths-per-reported-cases ratio has increased, according to CDC data. 1999-2017: 2,393 reported cases, 12 deaths = 5 in 1,000 compared to pre-vaccine era rate of 1 in 1,000. http://wonder.cdc.gov/ucd-icd10.html https://www.cdc.gov/measles/cases-outbreaks.html …https://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1167568653643988993 …
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Replying to @jeremyrhammond
This is the problem with statistical ignorance. It's very challenging to extrapolate from tiny numbers to a realistic rate. Recent large outbreaks have had similar characteristics, with a steady death rate of 0.2%
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Replying to @GidMK @jeremyrhammond
The 95% confidence interval for the 0.5% result includes both 0.025% and 0.09%, which gives you some idea of why it's hard to use 11/12 deaths as a foundation for a solid rate
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Replying to @GidMK
I am not arguing that what the data show is a reliable estimate of the measles death rate. I am simply observing that what the data show is a death rate of 5 per 1,000 reported cases, which is higher than during the pre-vaccine era.
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(If it's unreliable then the point estimate is a bit meaningless)
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