I'm way too tired today to do a yell, so why don't all you wonderful people tell me why this study probably doesn't show that "Pregnant women who don't get enough sunshine 'are more likely to have children with dyslexia, autism or ADHD'"https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-7191675/Children-conceived-winter-months-likely-autism.html …
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Replying to @GidMK
Is the seasonal variation going to be one of those "successful footballers are more likely to have been born in January than December" kind of things..?
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Replying to @OKalliokoski @GidMK
DING DING WE HAVE A WINNER. Sharp drop in prevalence for June conception = sharp drop for September birth, coincident with the academic year change over. Youngest kids in each year group more likely to be diagnosed.
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Replying to @OKalliokoski @GidMK
Except I fucked up. June conception = March birth, so it's actually exactly half a year out of phase with the school year.
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Does this help explain it? https://www.gov.scot/publications/growing-up-scotland-early-experiences-primary-school/pages/4/ …
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Replying to @OKalliokoski @GidMK
Spectacularly so. Also suggests a control experiment: run the same analysis for northern English counties, with similar sunlight exposure, but a school year running from Sept -> August.
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ADHD diagnosis is already known to be correlated with relative age within each school year cohort.https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpsy/article/PIIS2215-0366(17)30394-2/fulltext …
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Replying to @pjie2 @OKalliokoski
Love this thread, you guys are right on the money
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Another control experiment - run the same tests in the southern hemisphere
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