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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Robert W. Yeh MD MBA‏ @rwyeh 19 Jun 2019

      Robert W. Yeh MD MBA Retweeted C. Michael Gibson MD

      Cc: @ADAlthousePhD @f2harrell @statsepi do you agree with the statement that the point estimate in a wide confidence interval is the most likely value to be true (compared with other values within the CI)?https://twitter.com/CMichaelGibson/status/1141424951125258241 …

      Robert W. Yeh MD MBA added,

      C. Michael Gibson MD @CMichaelGibson
      Dr. Zuckerman: The confidence intervals are wide. How does this affect your interpretation? Dr. Baldwin: "Even if they are wide I'm stuck on the 40-50% increase in mortality. The point estimate is closest to the truth, closer to truth than the tails"
      10 replies 3 retweets 16 likes
    2. Sir Panda (Zad Rafi)‏ @dailyzad 19 Jun 2019
      Replying to @rwyeh @ADAlthousePhD and

      The point estimate, aka Maximum Likelihood estimate, is simply the most compatible with the observed data Doesn’t tell you anything about the truth... the values furthest from the MLE could be the truth, we don’t really know. Need several CIs

      4 replies 1 retweet 15 likes
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 19 Jun 2019
      Replying to @dailyzad @rwyeh and

      This is a remarkably common belief I think - I've talked to many people who think that the point estimate is the most likely to be "true" and the further away you get the lower the probability

      2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 19 Jun 2019
      Replying to @GidMK @dailyzad and

      If someone were to write a plain-language summary - say, a blog - on the topic, that'd be really handy 😉

      4:47 PM - 19 Jun 2019
      • 1 Like
      • Andrew Althouse
      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        1. New conversation
        2. Sir Panda (Zad Rafi)‏ @dailyzad 19 Jun 2019
          Replying to @GidMK @rwyeh and

          Here’s a quick sim showing it… assuming a true difference of 20, and simulating 100 intervals of different levels (1% and 95%), the 95% intervals will contain the true difference of 20, about 95% of the time . 1/3pic.twitter.com/CtoECns7ZI

          1 reply 1 retweet 3 likes
        3. Sir Panda (Zad Rafi)‏ @dailyzad 19 Jun 2019
          Replying to @dailyzad @GidMK and

          If we simulate 100 1% intervals (why 1%?, because it’s as close to the point estimate as possible and shortens the length of the intervals), these estimates will only contain the true value 1% of the time 2/3pic.twitter.com/LdP8Q4rs0U

          1 reply 1 retweet 4 likes
        4. Show replies

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