Cc: @ADAlthousePhD @f2harrell @statsepi do you agree with the statement that the point estimate in a wide confidence interval is the most likely value to be true (compared with other values within the CI)?https://twitter.com/CMichaelGibson/status/1141424951125258241 …
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If someone were to write a plain-language summary - say, a blog - on the topic, that'd be really handy

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Here’s a quick sim showing it… assuming a true difference of 20, and simulating 100 intervals of different levels (1% and 95%), the 95% intervals will contain the true difference of 20, about 95% of the time . 1/3pic.twitter.com/CtoECns7ZI
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this would be straightforwardly correct if the interval and estimate were being interpreted from a Bayesian point of view it's almost like people naturally ascribe a Bayesian interpretation to their procedures even if they've never heard of Bayes
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I think it is quite natural to confuse p(mu in interval) with p(mu in interval|my subjective beliefs), and also natural for people to wonder what happens if I repeat my process more times
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