The story gets even murkier from here. If you look at the published manuscript, the odds ratio is only ~just~ significant, which means that this was quite a tenuous relationshippic.twitter.com/xYSMNNHgZb
Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him
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The story gets even murkier from here. If you look at the published manuscript, the odds ratio is only ~just~ significant, which means that this was quite a tenuous relationshippic.twitter.com/xYSMNNHgZb
(Worth noting that there was no suggestion anywhere that this was a causal relationship until the press release, any speculation about the causes is totally hypothetical at this point)
What this tenuous relationship means, in practice, is that pet owners could have anywhere between a 1.8% or 57% increased odds of IBS, which is quite a wide range which verges on 0% increase at the bottom end
The authors helpfully include a forest plot for their study at the bottom Take a look and see what you thinkpic.twitter.com/7yY0GyUlWE
Having seen this plot, are you more or less confident in the statement that IBS is associated with pet ownership?
See, the thing is, that top study appears to be contributing the ENTIRE association. Every other study found no result at all, but one single study has caused the entire relationship to become statistically significantpic.twitter.com/pcW30Bzkhm
Being the nerd I am, I decided to rerun the meta analysis on their sample using the metan command in Stata This is a bit quick and dirty, but using a random-effects model with an inverse variance, I get these resultspic.twitter.com/s95D5VYPQ7
Can you calculate the prediction interval using metan? Sorry R user here.
I can but imo it's not really necessary. The CI already crosses/just crosses 0 depending on the weighting and model, the PI is going to be massive
Was just curious. I'm sure if you used the REML estimator and/or the Hartung-Knapp adjustment, the 95% CI would be wider for the effect size.
Honestly, if you use any adjustment whatsoever the effect completely disappears so...yeh This is the predictive interval using the rfdist subcommand for metanpic.twitter.com/cvFNHPHWCi
Thanks for running that! I find the PI is easier to communicate to non-stats people. In other words, it's anyone's guess of whether a positive or negative association will be found in the next study examining IBS and pet 
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