Now, we know how many people actually have/don't have the result that we are interested in, so we can fill out the right column straight away:pic.twitter.com/LbkcuVZoxM
Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him
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Now, we know how many people actually have/don't have the result that we are interested in, so we can fill out the right column straight away:pic.twitter.com/LbkcuVZoxM
Now, we don't know for sure what the rate of false negatives vs true positives is (sensitivity), but let's assume it's 97% - the number the police use That gives us this tablepic.twitter.com/DKPfKHFGGL
Now, going back to the original research, we think that 20% of all the tests that should be negative are in fact positive (80% specificity) Now our table is complete!pic.twitter.com/FUlWlkRSrU
Now, let's look at those figures Of all the negative tests, only 1/769 were wrong. That's 0.1%pic.twitter.com/dGcIE6rG6M
However, of the tests that came back positive, only 39 out of 231 actually had cannabis in their system! That's just 17% correctpic.twitter.com/6PctjVKpLs
What this means is that, if drug tests are wrong just 20% of the time, a positive value becomes almost meaningless
For law enforcement, that's probably a really big problem, because they (should) know that only 1 in 7 of their arrests for drug driving are likely to be a result of recent cannabis use
So my “roll of the dice” (1 in 6) was pretty close to your estimation of 1 in 7
And of course there are other issues about “use of cannabis” vs “impairment”. Either way, not good enough for prosecution!
Oh absolutely, I have a friend who wrote get thesis on roadside drug testing and concluded it was basically a waste of time+money!
They aren't a fan, but no thesis on them. I reckon they're wildly ineffective
Various reports by the nsw ombudsman suggest unreliable, at best
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