The results of the tests speak for themselves 17% consistent with diabetes 30% consistent with pre-diabetes only 53% in the normal rangepic.twitter.com/yLCcFlCjaS
Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him
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The results of the tests speak for themselves 17% consistent with diabetes 30% consistent with pre-diabetes only 53% in the normal rangepic.twitter.com/yLCcFlCjaS
Now THIS IS NOT A PREVALENCE ESTIMATE The population of people getting tests is highly selected. These are people coming into the hospital and sick enough to need a blood test But it's still far higher than we were expecting
I know what you're thinking, because we thought it too: "hospitals aren't really reflective of the general population. Everyone who goes there is sick, so this isn't surprising at all!" Which is why we didn't stop therepic.twitter.com/OQUGq4Xkhg
Next we went out to a group of general practices across quite a large geographic area We implemented a similar testing regimen (people who were already getting bloods had an HbA1c added) And guess what? We found the EXACT SAME NUMBERSpic.twitter.com/ZfPMnlBMFU
Even worse, there's every indication that the rate of diabetes is increasing, although it's hard to tell if this is because more people have diabetes or because we are getting better at identifying itpic.twitter.com/kb4valHU5J
What does this all mean? Well, firstly, there are probably a lot more people with diabetes than we thought
The exact figure is hard to know, but we estimate it to be between 11-13%
The rate of diabetes also seems to be growing at quite a scary rate Regardless of whether this is due to improved testing or a true increase in the number of people who have the disease, it means we are going to see more diabetes in hospital and primary care
Last but not least, it shows that targeted testing for diabetes can be a good way to improve detection
Depends. Locally in Australia it's currently not really recommended below 40 years, but our data indicates that in high-risk areas and communities that's too old
I agree. In the US the recommendation is 45, but of course there’s a huge shortage of primary care docs and other obstacles
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