#BREAKING: Polls change well within margin of error, statisticians ignore it while everyone else goes crazy
THIS WILL HAPPEN AGAIN NEXT WEEK AS WELL #Newspoll
Also, you can't see the confidence interval, so it's not unlikely that this change is both:
a) small
b) statistically insignificant
and therefore MEANINGLESS #auspol
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Even funnier, it appears that this change is due to a difference in the preference calculation rather than any change in how people intend to vote which is glorious statistical sneakiness https://www.pollbludger.net/2019/04/28/newspoll-51-49-labor-7/ …
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In a population of 25,352,609, the margin of error is 0.296 (according to my calculations), which means a movement of 1 percentage point is not only meaningless, the 95% confidence intervals actually overlap.
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