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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 20 Mar 2019

      So, I'm just going to say it - yes, it's very hard in this situation to exclude reverse causality. There weren't any sensitivity analyses that really excluded it, so I think it's still pretty likely

      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 20 Mar 2019

      This raises the last massive issue - residual confounding Note how the authors describe their findings vs the Daily Mailpic.twitter.com/iCvBZCoW0N

      2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 20 Mar 2019

      "Substantially strengthen the association" is NOT THE SAME AT ALL as "see their risk of gullet cancer rise by 90 percent" (Also, lol, gullet cancer is a great name)

      1 reply 0 retweets 11 likes
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    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 20 Mar 2019

      Why are the authors so cautious Maybe it's because TEA DRINKING IS SUPER SOCIAL AND HARD TO UNPICK FROM CONFOUNDERS It's in caps because GODDAM IT I SAY THIS EVERY WEEKpic.twitter.com/GUAQyTAYof

      1 reply 0 retweets 12 likes
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    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 20 Mar 2019

      We can't exclude residual confounding. Maybe people drink tea differently in different social situations. Maybe hot tea is more often served with alcohol. Maybe a single measure of how hot people drink their tea isn't that great a predictor 10 years later when they get cancer

      1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
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    6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 20 Mar 2019

      Maybe there are a million factors you can never measure, and never control for, and thus it's really hard to know if this is causal or not Maybe

      1 reply 1 retweet 10 likes
      Show this thread
    7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 20 Mar 2019

      So the authors are cautious. They know that there's a decent chance that the heat of your tea has nothing to do with risk of esophageal cancer But the newspaper needs a story And so we get "hot tea causes cancer"pic.twitter.com/g6kancVrKs

      2 replies 3 retweets 9 likes
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    8. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 20 Mar 2019

      So, let's recap: Large epi study showed 0.34% absolute increase in risk of cancer associated with drinking the hottest tea compared to cold tea, in large amounts, every day for 10 years Reverse causality and residual confounding remain an issue

      1 reply 1 retweet 9 likes
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    9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 20 Mar 2019

      Do we trust these results? Well, yes. The study was interesting, and well done Do we think hot tea = cancer?

      8 replies 0 retweets 8 likes
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    10. Alan Watson‏ @Alan_Watson_ 21 Mar 2019
      Replying to @GidMK

      Your enthusiasm to dismiss the research is notable but there is a reasonably comprehensive body of evidence, to which this research has added, showing that hot drinks do increase cancers. As there is no real benefit from very hot drinks why take the risk? http://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-research-on-hot-tea-and-oesophageal-cancer/ …

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Mar 2019
      Replying to @Alan_Watson_

      What an odd response. There are a number of criticisms of the media attention of research above, it's a bit insulting to call that dismissive and a bit hypocritical - although I'm sure not intended - to dismiss it all yourself

      12:02 PM - 21 Mar 2019
      • 1 Like
      • Em - is fully #vaccinated 🏳️‍🌈
      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        1. New conversation
        2. Alan Watson‏ @Alan_Watson_ 21 Mar 2019
          Replying to @GidMK

          You dismiss it, inter alia, by your conclusion poll offering only options contrary to the conclusions of the research. How do I dismiss it? I simply note, as a matter of fact, the study does not reach those conclusions in isolation & suggest "better safe than sorry" in that light

          2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Alan Watson‏ @Alan_Watson_ 21 Mar 2019
          Replying to @Alan_Watson_ @GidMK

          The conclusions of the research are also entirely consistent the recent WHO/IARC conclusions that hot drinks are a probable human carcinogen. Avoiding hot drinks seems particularly prudent in the light of those conclusions. https://www.iarc.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/Monographs-QA_Vol116.pdf …pic.twitter.com/qyk5nNKZCh

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        4. End of conversation

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