But these people were measured at adulthood, and then followed over time The damage to their throat might have already happened So rather than the above sequence, we might see damage to throat = hot tea = cancer
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So, let's recap: Large epi study showed 0.34% absolute increase in risk of cancer associated with drinking the hottest tea compared to cold tea, in large amounts, every day for 10 years Reverse causality and residual confounding remain an issue
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Do we trust these results? Well, yes. The study was interesting, and well done Do we think hot tea = cancer?
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I wouldn't let the authors off the hook. This study was apparently doomed from the beginning - even though they found a large difference they can't draw any conclusions and no serious person seems to believe the result. *Why did they spend resources on this?*
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This reminds of me
@statsepi post on datamethods awhile back: “the pointlessness of chasing small effects in epidemiology” (or something like that)
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