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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 18 Mar 2019

      Health Nerd Retweeted CNBC

      The reporting of this new Apple Watch study is not great - 0.5% rate of atrial fibrillation in the study (HUGE PROBLEM) - 34% positive predictive value in real-world conditions (rarely correct) - 71% PPV in ideal clinical conditions - watch mostly useless clinicallyhttps://twitter.com/CNBC/status/1107856005097054211 …

      Health Nerd added,

      CNBCVerified account @CNBC
      Apple’s groundbreaking heart study signals a new era of medicine, and doctors are debating the results https://cnb.cx/2TU3qIv 
      7 replies 68 retweets 101 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 18 Mar 2019

      Let's think about this a bit. What does a 34% positive predictive value mean?pic.twitter.com/RfQQfiBfBX

      1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
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    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 18 Mar 2019

      The basic idea is that, of the 450 people who had a warning for AF in the study AND got this confirmed with an actual EKG, only 34% actually had AF THIS IS NOT GREATpic.twitter.com/1snetnaQkE

      1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
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    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 18 Mar 2019

      (Smart readers might note that this means that, in a sample of 420,000 PEOPLE, the Apple Watch correctly diagnosed just ~150 with AF which is PRETTY DAMN BAD)

      1 reply 1 retweet 7 likes
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    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 18 Mar 2019

      Now, in an unspecified sample of other people who wore both the Apple Watch and a continuous EKG, the prediction was better - 71% We have no idea if this is meaningful, because there's no sample size, which brings us to another issue here

      2 replies 1 retweet 5 likes
      Show this thread
    6. Harry‏ @bird2flip 18 Mar 2019
      Replying to @GidMK

      Continuous ekg surely the only reliable way. I wldnt trust a watch.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 18 Mar 2019
      Replying to @bird2flip

      Pretty much

      11:24 PM - 18 Mar 2019
      • 1 Like
      • Harry
      0 replies 0 retweets 1 like

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