The reporting of this new Apple Watch study is not great - 0.5% rate of atrial fibrillation in the study (HUGE PROBLEM) - 34% positive predictive value in real-world conditions (rarely correct) - 71% PPV in ideal clinical conditions - watch mostly useless clinicallyhttps://twitter.com/CNBC/status/1107856005097054211 …
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Let's think about this a bit. What does a 34% positive predictive value mean?pic.twitter.com/RfQQfiBfBX
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The basic idea is that, of the 450 people who had a warning for AF in the study AND got this confirmed with an actual EKG, only 34% actually had AF THIS IS NOT GREATpic.twitter.com/1snetnaQkE
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(Smart readers might note that this means that, in a sample of 420,000 PEOPLE, the Apple Watch correctly diagnosed just ~150 with AF which is PRETTY DAMN BAD)
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Now, in an unspecified sample of other people who wore both the Apple Watch and a continuous EKG, the prediction was better - 71% We have no idea if this is meaningful, because there's no sample size, which brings us to another issue here
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Replying to @GidMK
Continuous ekg surely the only reliable way. I wldnt trust a watch.
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