So, presumably, the test should only ever be sold and marketed to people who meet those fairly exacting criteria, if at all?
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Replying to @GidMK @cecilejanssens and
No - that is the group that the score is *most* useful for. It's a personal value judgement for the individual. Although yes - I would say on the marketing side it should be clear how well the test would perform across various groups - which is exactly what was done.
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Replying to @ATorkamani @cecilejanssens and
But what you're saying is that in the best case scenario the test - for people who are low on every other risk, resemble 23andMe userbase, and score in the highest risk tier - will inform people of a risk increase of, what, about 0.05%? Roughly?
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Replying to @GidMK @cecilejanssens and
According to the white paper its >2X increase in lifetime risk in the top 5%. Risk increase depends on how you define "healthy." But the lifetime risk for BMI (18-25) is >10%. Seems like a fine definition for how most people perceive their health. 10% -> 20% (roughly)
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Replying to @ATorkamani @GidMK and
I should note that the relative risk conveyed by these factors actually appears to be magnified in the healthy as well: https://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/article?id=10.1371/journal.pmed.1001647 … Which would lead to the surprising conclusion that you'd actually be underestimating risk in the healthy in this model.
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Replying to @ATorkamani @cecilejanssens and
The conclusion of that paper is that due to their low absolute risk, screening healthy younger participants is not advised
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Replying to @GidMK @cecilejanssens and
Well - I think the issue is that you are mixing issues of public policy with personal choice. At least that is my view of the situation.
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Replying to @ATorkamani @cecilejanssens and
In what sense? Personal choice is wonderful language, but monitoring your diabetes status over a lifetime requires tens of thousands in lab tests, not to mention the cost of the test itself. Where's the value?
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Replying to @GidMK @ATorkamani and
But if we are going to talk public policy - as
@statsepi noted above, it would be fascinating to see someone try and justify these tests based on an epidemiological argument1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @GidMK @cecilejanssens and
Well - I certainly wouldn't be constantly monitoring my T2D status on the basis of these results. I'd think more like a short-term continuous glucose monitoring trial to see how you respond to different foods. Or just pass on dessert more often.
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I have to say, I'm confused. Either the test is useful at giving you a meaningful prediction of your risk of diabetes - in which case you should absolutely actively monitor the situation - or it's not If you wouldn't make medical decisions based on the test, what's the point?
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