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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 17 Feb 2019

      (This is what's known as a relative risk, which means the risk of one thing happening compared to another) 6.5/

      1 reply 1 retweet 5 likes
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    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 17 Feb 2019

      What does this mean? Well, not that much. As I said, this is very crude. We know that the debt notices were probably sent to less healthy than average people (some of them were disability recipients, for example) 7/

      2 replies 1 retweet 4 likes
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    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 17 Feb 2019

      So the fact that the relative risk of death was about 40% higher in the robodebt recipients may not mean anything at all (although it's worth noting that we HAVE - mostly - controlled for age by definition here) 8/

      1 reply 1 retweet 6 likes
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    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 17 Feb 2019

      Ultimately, you'd need to do a much more robust analysis to get a particularly strong answer What we CAN say is that ROBODEBT DEFINITELY DIDN'T CAUSE 776 DEATHS #notmydebt #robodebt 9/

      3 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
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    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 17 Feb 2019

      People who received debt notices *may* be at a higher risk of death than the general population - it's hard to be sure - but the debt notices definitely didn't kill people en masse End 10/

      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
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    6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 17 Feb 2019

      Worth noting - because it's my eternal bug-bear - that the ABSOLUTE risk of death appears to have been increased by 0.03% by debt notices, which is somewhat less impressive and scary as well

      2 replies 1 retweet 5 likes
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    7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 18 Feb 2019

      CORRECTION TO THIS THREAD - I actually miscalculated the relative and absolute risk - I halved the estimate twice accidentally This is why peer review is important thank you @AndrewHayen

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
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    8. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 18 Feb 2019

      The true relative risk is 3, or a 300% increased risk of death, and the absolute risk should be 0.07 or an 0.07% increased risk of death @not_my_debt

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    9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 18 Feb 2019

      But still probably worth remembering that this is not very meaningful and we'd have to at the very minimum compare to other Centrelink recipients - not the general population like I did - to get a decent estimate

      2 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
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    10. Sentient Quantum Fluctuations l ⧖‏ @QuantumHawk666 18 Feb 2019
      Replying to @GidMK

      Lots of confounders within an already at risk group. If the data was available pre/post robodebt and/or with/without robodebt notice could be interesting.

      1 reply 1 retweet 1 like
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 18 Feb 2019
      Replying to @QuantumHawk666

      Pretty much. This number is ~slightly~ more meaningful than the 776 raw figure, but still not a reasonable comparison

      3:46 PM - 18 Feb 2019
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      • Sentient Quantum Fluctuations l ⧖
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