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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 17 Feb 2019

      The number comes from a Department of Human Services report that you can access here: https://www.aph.gov.au/api/qon/downloadattachment?attachmentId=320c24fa-915f-40c1-8d8d-d816dd35f95b … The specific figure is 776 deaths for people aged under 45 in a population of ~410,000 debt notices 2/pic.twitter.com/WtD5wBCWrI

      2 replies 2 retweets 5 likes
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    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 17 Feb 2019

      This means that the rate of death for people aged 45 or below as a proportion of the total sample is 776/410000 = 0.002 = 0.2% But what does that MEAN? 3/

      1 reply 1 retweet 5 likes
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    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 17 Feb 2019

      It's important to remember that this rate of death was over 2 years. So we halve that for the yearly rate: 0.2/2 = 0.1% 3.5/

      1 reply 1 retweet 5 likes
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    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 17 Feb 2019

      (Note: This isn't the best statistic, but because we don't have the age breakdown of debt recipients we can't get the exact rate of death for 45 and below) 4/

      1 reply 1 retweet 5 likes
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    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 17 Feb 2019

      If we look at the last 10 years (2008-2018), we see that the average number of deaths in Australia in this age group was 6,607 The population >15 years was ~19.5 million 5/

      1 reply 1 retweet 4 likes
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    6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 17 Feb 2019

      Plugging those numbers in we get 6607/19500000 = 0.0007 = 0.07% So the VERY CRUDE rate of death in the sample of robodebt recipients was about 0.1/0.07 = 40% higher than the national average 6/

      2 replies 6 retweets 7 likes
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    7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 17 Feb 2019

      (This is what's known as a relative risk, which means the risk of one thing happening compared to another) 6.5/

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    8. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 17 Feb 2019

      What does this mean? Well, not that much. As I said, this is very crude. We know that the debt notices were probably sent to less healthy than average people (some of them were disability recipients, for example) 7/

      2 replies 1 retweet 4 likes
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    9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 17 Feb 2019

      So the fact that the relative risk of death was about 40% higher in the robodebt recipients may not mean anything at all (although it's worth noting that we HAVE - mostly - controlled for age by definition here) 8/

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      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 17 Feb 2019
      Replying to @jpwarren

      I'm not saying the policy was good, just that the figures don't demonstrate a massive death toll and are hard to interpret without much more in-depth analysis

      10:54 PM - 17 Feb 2019
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