What is the probability my child is hurt from measles vs hurt from the measles vaccine?
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Replying to @4LOVofScience
@GidMK had a very nice and succinct tweet outlining the very low risks of various vaccines (of course I can’t find it!)1 reply 0 retweets 1 like -
Replying to @auscandoc @4LOVofScience
I can't find that one either but for the MMR the risk of a serious adverse event - hospitalization etc - is roughly 1/1,000,000 Measles has a hospitalization rate of 2/1,000, or about 200x higher than the vaccine
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Replying to @GidMK @auscandoc
That is if you get measles. Your chances of getting measles(in 2017 there were ~120 cases) is about 1 in 2 million. So your chances of having an adverse measles reaction is 1 in 1 billion? About 1000 times less than the vaccine.
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Replying to @4LOVofScience @auscandoc
That is very dependent on the vaccination rate of where you live. Once it drops below 92%, the risk of getting measles rises exponentially. At ~70% vaccination most unvaccinated kids start getting the disease
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That's the paradox of vaccination - the better you get at getting people vaccinated, the less each individual needs to be vaccinated. But if enough people opt-out, vaccines become enormously valuable
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Worth noting that this threshold is very low from a societal point of view - as an individual, it may not always make sense to get vaccinated at 95%+, but as a society keeping most people vaccinated is a massive cost-saver/life-saver
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