By your standards the connection between smoking and lung cancer should be dismissed as fear mongering
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Replying to @kevinnbass @mackinprof and
The size of an association does matter. In the GRADE method for judging/communicating the strength of a conclusion based on a body of evidence, "large magnitude of effect" is a determining factor of observational evidence strength. https://handbook-5-1.cochrane.org/chapter_12/table_12_2_c_factors_that_may_increase_the_quality_level_of_a.htm …
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Replying to @whsource @kevinnbass and
If you think about it, large effects are often implausible, there are only a handful of scenarios where there have been large effects (smoking lung cancer). If anything large effects may simply be strong bias or bad estimation.
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Smoking and lung cancer is not a good comparison because it’s an incredibly rare outlier
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Lun cancer-smoking connection came from observational evidence backed by mechanistic studies that formed the consensus. Animal protein is in the same boat.
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Replying to @kevinnbass @dailyzad and
You say it's impossible to establish effect with observational studies with animal protein, and consistency would demand you do the same with smoking and lung cancer.
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Replying to @kevinnbass @whsource and
Kevin, the lung cancer-smoking example is never used as an example to promote the prowess of epidemiological data. Its an outlier where the increased risk was nearly 20x
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Replying to @dailyzad @kevinnbass and
Now that I don't agree with. There are quite a few examples aside from smoking with similar - although not quite as high - risks. Mesothelioma/asbestos and hepatocellular carcinoma/HBV spring to mind
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Replying to @GidMK @kevinnbass and
good points, though smoking is like the parachute
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Yeh it's definitely an outlier, but that's not necessarily because of effect size it's more to do with how limited the exposure is. I can't think of another disease state that has such a simple and easily-identifiable risk
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