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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 6 Jan 2019

      Oh hey look, lots of people are Wrong On The Internet again No, red wine isn't good for heart failure. The study itself was: 1. Tiny 2. Observational 3. Hopelessly confounded 4. Not generalizablepic.twitter.com/kKrPWzh7ro

      4 replies 9 retweets 28 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 6 Jan 2019

      Here's the study. It was looking at a 393-person subset of a larger study, which as I've said is really, really small for this kind of observational trial https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2719576 …

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
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    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 6 Jan 2019

      Seriously, I doubt whether this was sufficiently well-powered to establish a statistical difference once you've split it up into so many categories

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      Show this thread
    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 6 Jan 2019

      You can kind of see this in that they split the drinkers into 4 groups: never, abstainers, 1-7 drinks per week, 7+ drinks per week These are ~really weird~pic.twitter.com/d0yF2oA7Z5

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 6 Jan 2019

      Usually with drinking, you'd divide it into 1 per day (i.e. 7 per week), 2 per day, 3 per day etc This significantly limits the applicability of the findings straight up, because the AVERAGE alcohol consumption in many countries is more than double this 'safe' amount

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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    6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 6 Jan 2019

      And the tiny sample size means that their results are only ~barely~ significant, because the difference between moderate and other drinkers is always very small anywaypic.twitter.com/a7eMAqTIeP

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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    7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 6 Jan 2019

      Also, it's only when compared to abstinence, which we know is not a good model for behavior

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      Show this thread
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 6 Jan 2019

      Anyway, there's not a whole lot you can take home from a massively confounded 393-person observational study The headlines are almost certainly nonsense Wine is still not great for people with heart disease as far as we know

      12:10 PM - 6 Jan 2019
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 6 Jan 2019

          Oh, also, the "2-years longer" nonsense that everyone had in their headlines? That was based off the point estimate in differences But the CONFIDENCE INTERVALS INTERSECT (a lot)pic.twitter.com/nYalwtvXP9

          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
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        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 6 Jan 2019

          That doesn't mean that there's no difference, but it does make the certainty of any specific difference much lower, making the two years total guesswork

          2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        4. End of conversation

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