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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 16 Dec 2018

      Health Nerd Retweeted Eric Topol

      Prediction: the Apple Watch predictive atrial fibrillation function is going to kill many, many more people than it saves Pre-test probability is important, AF is rare, and the Apple Watch is wrong ~90% of the timehttps://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1073667088907030528 …

      Health Nerd added,

      Eric TopolVerified account @EricTopol
      For the people asserting that finding atrial fibrillation in people without symptoms saves lives, there are no data to support that. The most recent USPSTF recommendations do not recommend screening for people w/o symptoms, based on all available evidence https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2695678 … pic.twitter.com/Ien3L7jVDv
      Show this thread
      15 replies 151 retweets 274 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Mayank Sardana‏ @msardana_md 18 Dec 2018
      Replying to @GidMK

      AF is probably rare in the current Apple Watch owners, but I am not aware of any data reporting 10% accuracy. Looking forward to the results of the Apple Heart Study! @leftbundlehttps://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0002870318302710?via%3Dihub …

      2 replies 1 retweet 1 like
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 18 Dec 2018
      Replying to @msardana_md @leftbundle

      This is based on a sensitivity of 98% and specificity of 99.6% in a population with <0.5% prevalence of AF (Apple Watch users)

      6:00 PM - 18 Dec 2018
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Mayank Sardana‏ @msardana_md 18 Dec 2018
          Replying to @GidMK @leftbundle

          Agree that in low prevalence samples, high probability of false positives, but assuming 0.5% prevalence, positive predictive value is just over 50%. Need to keep a high index of suspicion for false positives and consider this data in context of AF risk for individual patients.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 18 Dec 2018
          Replying to @msardana_md @leftbundle

          This is also all assuming, of course, that the unpublished results Apple submitted to the FDA can be replicated in real-world scenarios and that the specificity remains just as high

          2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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