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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 11 Dec 2018

      More The EFFECTIVE reproduction rate (R) is calculated based on the R0 Mathematically, it is: R0*y = R Where y is the proportion of the population susceptible to the disease

      1 reply 2 retweets 3 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 11 Dec 2018

      Based on the table above, what's the R for measles in a population with 75% vaccination rates?

      1 reply 1 retweet 3 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 11 Dec 2018

      Here's a more difficult question - based on the equation for R, what is the formula to work out the % for herd immunity (HI)?

      1 reply 1 retweet 3 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 11 Dec 2018

      This is more complex because you have to think about what herd immunity really means Herd immunity means that each person passes on the disease to fewer than 1 person (on average), so the disease eventually peters out

      1 reply 2 retweets 6 likes
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    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 11 Dec 2018

      What this means, in technical terms, is that R<1 I.e. the effective reproduction rate in the population is less than 1

      1 reply 1 retweet 2 likes
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    6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 11 Dec 2018

      Mathematically, this gives us the minimum threshold for herd immunity as: R0*(1-HI) = 1 Where R = 1 and R0 is calculated based on the disease Turning this around, we get: HI =1-(1/RO)

      1 reply 2 retweets 4 likes
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    7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 11 Dec 2018

      So to work out the threshold for herd immunity, we just have to solve this for each disease! Pretty cool, huh?

      1 reply 2 retweets 3 likes
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    8. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 11 Dec 2018

      What's the herd immunity threshold for mumps, based on this formula?

      1 reply 2 retweets 3 likes
      Show this thread
    9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 11 Dec 2018

      Completing the formula, we get: HI = 1-(1/4) to 1-(1/7) = .75-.86 = 75-86%

      2 replies 2 retweets 3 likes
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    10. Captain Science PhD‏ @_captainscience 11 Dec 2018
      Replying to @GidMK

      What's the threshold for vaccinating against keto brain?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 11 Dec 2018
      Replying to @_captainscience

      Unfortunately, there is no upper limit

      7:27 PM - 11 Dec 2018
      • 1 Like
      • Captain Science PhD
      0 replies 0 retweets 1 like

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