At 0.45 Guru-Murphy complains about the minister citing facts.https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1063827283662778373 …
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Replying to @cjsnowdon
The destitution number come from JRF. It is a made up statistic that tries to measure how many people have benefit problems essentially.https://www.jrf.org.uk/report/destitution-uk-2018 …
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Replying to @philjvtaylor @cjsnowdon
JRF uses careful constructions such as: "last year over 1.5 million people in the UK were pushed into destitution". On page 13 of their report they say:pic.twitter.com/FaNkjOipCG
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Replying to @philjvtaylor @cjsnowdon
So at any one time the number defined by JRF as being destitute is 184,000 rather than 1.5 million. Alston said: "1.5 million are destitute, unable to afford basic essentials". He was misusing the JRF data.
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Replying to @philjvtaylor @cjsnowdon
That's incorrect. The 184,000 is an estimate of destitute individuals who were accessing services (i.e. foodbanks) in any one week. This is distinct from the 1.5million estimate, which is for the total population, who may or may not access services in any particular week
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Replying to @GidMK @philjvtaylor
I haven’t read the report but based on the quote above it looks like the 1.5m includes anyone who has been in need in any given week per year?
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Replying to @cjsnowdon @GidMK
It is an estimate that says 1.5 million have had episodes in the year. In any one week the smaller number. The bigger number will include repeat episodes by one household so is doubly dubious (like all the Trussell numbers which you can divide by 2 straight off).
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Nope. I'd suggest you read the technical report, how they derived the 1.5 million figure is actually quite complex and includes various regression models and predictive frameworks. That's why the assumptions are key: https://researchportal.hw.ac.uk/en/publications/destitution-in-the-uk-2018-technical-report …
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