#BREAKING; Poll varies within expected error margin, this is entirely expected and DEFINITELY NOT NEWS
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If all the news about polls was limited to only results that were outside the confidence interval, 99% of all polling stories would instantly disappear
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Replying to @GidMK
To be exact, 1 - the type 1 error plus a little (when there was an actual change) = a little less than 95% :-)
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Replying to @peripatetical
Haha true, but that's assuming that the rate of news stories is similar for true effects. I'd contend that minor statistical variation, ironically, actually gets more write-ups because it appears tighter and thus more dramatic
3:43 PM - 4 Nov 2018
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