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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    Two-way (sending and receiving) short codes:

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Sep 2018

      Health Nerd Retweeted STAT

      So, according to this, the false positive rate for the Apple Watch in detecting atrial fibrillation is 0.04% (99.6% correct) This means that, on average, Apple Watches will be wrong more than 80% of the time Sound counterintuitive? This is the issue with population screeninghttps://twitter.com/statnews/status/1040273579391242242 …

      Health Nerd added,

      STATVerified account @statnews
      Apple submitted two studies to FDA to get clearance for the new Apple Watch EKG app. Here’s the data. https://buff.ly/2QuhGmG 
      15 replies 58 retweets 101 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Sep 2018

      It's actually fairly basic maths The population prevalence for atrial fibrillation is about 1%

      2 replies 0 retweets 7 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Sep 2018

      Assuming that the false negative rate is 0% (this is pretty close, it was actually 2%), in a sample of 1000 people you'll get 10 with AF who will receive the correct diagnosis

      1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Sep 2018

      Now, the false negative rate is 0.04% So, in the remaining 990 people who are tested, 40 will receive positive results

      8 replies 0 retweets 8 likes
      Show this thread
    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Sep 2018

      Keeping track, that means 4 out of every 5 people who are diagnosed using this app will be diagnosed incorrectly

      2 replies 1 retweet 9 likes
      Show this thread
    6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Sep 2018

      And remember, these people will then likely go on to receive unnecessary tests, interventions, and potentially medications Some of them will probably die

      3 replies 0 retweets 9 likes
      Show this thread
    7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Sep 2018

      This is why population screening is a fine art Even if your test is FANTASTIC, you have to be really damn careful Because otherwise you can KILL PEOPLE

      1 reply 1 retweet 10 likes
      Show this thread
    8. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Sep 2018

      P.S. just in case this wasn't elucidated well above - 1% prevalence means that 10 in 1,000 people have the disease and AF=atrial fibrillation

      1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
      Show this thread
    9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Sep 2018

      P.P.S - As has been pointed out, I got my simple maths incorrect here Serves me right for being overconfident! The true negative identification should be 4, thus the watch is only wrong ~1/3 of the time Still a fascinating phenomenon

      2 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
      Show this thread
    10. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Sep 2018

      This false identification rate can be reduced if the proportion of the population at risk increases For example, if 10% of the population have AF, then the watch only gets it wrong a tiny percentage of the time

      2 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
      Show this thread
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Sep 2018

      This is why screening is usually only recommended in very high-risk populations

      2:18 PM - 14 Sep 2018
      • 6 Likes
      • Dr. Gabriel J. Odom doc, inventor of the judgemental stare Tom Schmit Gina pyrrh: high emprex of excessive git commits ♿ Alice [ShutDownNazis] Renee
      0 replies 0 retweets 6 likes

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