So, according to this, the false positive rate for the Apple Watch in detecting atrial fibrillation is 0.04% (99.6% correct) This means that, on average, Apple Watches will be wrong more than 80% of the time Sound counterintuitive? This is the issue with population screeninghttps://twitter.com/statnews/status/1040273579391242242 …
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It's actually fairly basic maths The population prevalence for atrial fibrillation is about 1%
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Assuming that the false negative rate is 0% (this is pretty close, it was actually 2%), in a sample of 1000 people you'll get 10 with AF who will receive the correct diagnosis
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Now, the false negative rate is 0.04% So, in the remaining 990 people who are tested, 40 will receive positive results
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Replying to @chuggins9000
Whoops yep incorrect rate it's 0.4% not 0.04%-99.6 correct I'm still wrong tho, should be 4 people
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Replying to @GidMK
Haha I missed that too. I get your premise and agree but 10/14 isn’t nearly as bad.
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True although with the true false positive rate it's more like 9/13 so still more than a third wrong
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Replying to @GidMK
IF true a third wrong would be very good sensitivity/specificity compared to most clinical screens.
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