So, according to this, the false positive rate for the Apple Watch in detecting atrial fibrillation is 0.04% (99.6% correct) This means that, on average, Apple Watches will be wrong more than 80% of the time Sound counterintuitive? This is the issue with population screeninghttps://twitter.com/statnews/status/1040273579391242242 …
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This is why population screening is a fine art Even if your test is FANTASTIC, you have to be really damn careful Because otherwise you can KILL PEOPLE
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P.S. just in case this wasn't elucidated well above - 1% prevalence means that 10 in 1,000 people have the disease and AF=atrial fibrillation
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P.P.S - As has been pointed out, I got my simple maths incorrect here Serves me right for being overconfident! The true negative identification should be 4, thus the watch is only wrong ~1/3 of the time Still a fascinating phenomenon
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This false identification rate can be reduced if the proportion of the population at risk increases For example, if 10% of the population have AF, then the watch only gets it wrong a tiny percentage of the time
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This is why screening is usually only recommended in very high-risk populations
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End of conversation
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Except that a positive from the Watch is an indication that you should see a doctor for a higher-confidence diagnosis, not blindly 'take unnecessary medicines and die.' People get tested for conditions for which they display 20% risk factors all the time.
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Yes, some people will get unnecessary tests due to the false positives, but surely they will follow up with basic EKG to confirm before getting interventions
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